Inflation and huge bond issuance "double attack", analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 11

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.29%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.05%. The German DAX index fell 0.42%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.27%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.42%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.28%.

2. Market news interpretation

Inflation and huge bond issuance are "double hit"; can the yield curve of US Treasury "strike back"?

⑴ A Reuters survey shows that due to inflation concerns brought about by Trump's tariff remarks and the issuance of huge new bonds, long-term US Treasury yields are expected to rise moderately. ⑵ At the same time, in the context of rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, short-term U.S. Treasury yields will decline. ⑶ Data shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise to 4.30% within three months, while the 2-year yield will drop to 3.60%, and further drop to 3.50% in one year, causing the yield curve to steeper further. ⑷ Analysts pointed out that although inflationary pressures may be temporary, a large number of Treasury bond issuances require higher yields to attract buyers, which will also push up long-term yields. ⑸Blackstone Group and Morgan Stanley Investment Management both believe that the steepening of the yield curve will be a high certainty trend in the future.

Turkey's government bond yield "breaks 40%", can the lira exchange rate still stabilize?

⑴Turkey's Ministry of Finance successfully issued a maturity date of 2027 with a yield of 40.39% in the government bond auction.Fixed coupon bonds on the 14th of the month, net raised 42.4716 billion lira. ⑵The bond issuance also includes the sale of 26 billion lira to primary traders through non-competitive bids and 12.03 billion lira to state institutions. ⑶ Although the measure successfully provided funds to the government, the yield of up to 40.39% highlights investors' concerns about the risks of Türkiye's inflation and the depreciation of the lira. ⑷ The yield level is much higher than previous market expectations, which may intensify Turkey's fiscal pressure and pose a potential threat to the future trend of the lira.

Moody's says more than half of the U.S. industries lay off employees

Mark Zandi, chief economic analyst at Moody's Analytics, said that more than half of the U.S. industries have begun layoffs. He posted on social platform X on August 10 that the starting point of the recession can often be seen clearly afterwards. He believes that the official institution that determines when the U.S. economic recession will begin and end is the National Institute of Economic Research. According to the Institute's definition, an economic recession refers to "a significant decline in economic activity, which has affected the entire economy and lasted for more than a few months." The indicators included in the survey include personal income, employment, consumer spending, sales and industrial production data. Zandi said employment data is the most important single data, and this data has almost stagnated since May.

U.S. lawmakers say Russia and Ukraine may exchange territories to reach an agreement

U.S. Republican Senator Graham said in an interview with US media that Russia and Ukraine may discuss the issue of exchanging territories to reach a ceasefire. Graham also stressed that the United States should continue to deliver weapons to Ukraine. But in the program aired on the same day on Fox News, US Vice President Vance said that the United States is unwilling to directly support Ukraine, but welcomes European countries to continue to purchase weapons from the United States to provide them to Ukraine.

The US CPI "first-win" soft data may give birth to a new round of market rotation

⑴ This week, the market entered a critical moment. Tuesday's US consumer price index (CPI) data will determine the expectation of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, and may trigger a rotation of the market style of the stock market. ⑵Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out that if the CPI data is lower than expected, it may strengthen the market's bet on a September interest rate cut and drive funds from large tech stocks to small-cap and low-quality stocks. ⑶ On the contrary, if inflation data is higher than expected, it may prompt funds to return defensive and high-quality stocks and postpone the Fed's policy easing cycle. ⑷ The strategist advised investors to remain flexible in response to possible market leadership changes, and pointed out that factors such as rebound in U.S. corporate earnings, popularization of artificial intelligence and weakening of the dollar will support the bullish outlook for U.S. stocks in the next six to 12 months. ⑸ In addition, strategists expect inflation caused by Trump's tariff remarks to fade in the fourth quarter, paving the way for a cycle of interest rate cuts.

Indian stock funds ushered in a record $5 billion inflow of capital amid a sell-off in July

Indian retail investments despite U.S. tariff-related concerns triggered one of the worst market sell-offs this yearIn July, the xmtraders.company continued to increase its investment in stocks. According to data from the Indian Mutual Fund Association, Indian mutual funds focused on stocks (which mainly xmtraders.come from individual investors) achieved a record net inflow of Rs 42,700 crore (about US$4.9 billion). The funds flowing into the monthly recurring investment plan are approximately Rs 28,500 crore. The 53rd consecutive month of net inflows not only demonstrates retail investors' confidence in the long-term prospects of local stocks, but also reflects their ability to still dare to bet on the stock market when the overall market sells. "In a time of high uncertainty, this proves the resilience and maturity of the Indian market and investors."

Respond to the U.S. taxation Mexico sets the minimum export price for tomatoes

After the U.S. announced last month that the U.S. announced tariffs on most of the fresh tomatoes produced in Mexico, the Mexican Ministry of Economics and the Ministry of Agriculture announced on August 10 that Mexico had set the minimum export price for fresh tomatoes. Reuters quoted a joint statement issued by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Agriculture on the same day that the measure did not involve the export quantity and highest price of tomatoes, but only limited the minimum export price, aiming to strengthen the Mexican government's xmtraders.commitment to "agricultural xmtraders.competitiveness, guaranteeing rural employment and food sovereignty." The Mexican side will conduct an annual assessment of the minimum export price of tomatoes, or adjust it in real time according to market needs. According to the statement, the minimum export prices for Mexican cherry tomatoes and grape tomatoes are US$1.7 per kilogram, Roman tomatoes are US$0.88 per kilogram, cocktail tomatoes are US$1.7 per kilogram, and round tomatoes are US$1.65 per kilogram. Mexican government data showed that the country exported about $3.3 billion in tomatoes last year. According to multiple foreign media reports, the price limit measures took effect immediately after the Mexican government issued relevant decrees on the 8th.

The inflation data in 2024 is "out", and there are still variables in the EU's economic recovery path

⑴ After experiencing a peak of 9.2% in 2022, the EU inflation rate began to slow down in 2023 and 2024, recording an increase of 6.4% and 2.6% respectively. ⑵ Data shows that although overall inflation has declined, the price increase in some EU countries is still significant. ⑶In 2024, three EU member states rose by more than 4.0%, with Romania ranked first with 5.8%, while Belgium and Croatia ranked 4.3% and 4.0% respectively. ⑷ This data highlights the differentiation of internal inflation trends in the EU, indicating that member states may need to adopt different policies when dealing with inflation and stimulating economic growth.

The "death cross" suddenly appeared in the Gulf stock market: the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is hard to match the financial report's bloody collapse

⑴ Saudi Arabia's TASI index suddenly broke the technical level: 73% of the 214 constituent stocks fell below the 50-day moving average, Saudi Arabia's advanced industry plummeted 7% in a single day to trigger a land mine formation for financial report, and food giant Almunajem's profit plummeted 51% in half and sounded the alarm for consumer recession. ⑵Dubai real estate hegemony collapses: EmaarProperties' trading volume plummeted by 42% to a new low this year. There is a more deadly signal behind EMPOWER Refrigeration Group's 1.1% decline - the vacancy rate of xmtraders.commercial real estate has exceeded the 18% warning line. ⑶Qatar's banking industry encountered an "oil curse": although crude oil prices stood firm at $85, QNB Bank's stock price fell 0.3% against the trend, and the reduction of sovereign wealth funds is seen as an early hedge against the decline in natural gas revenue. ⑷ Weird divergence: DEWA Hydropower xmtraders.company's profit soared by 25%, but only pulled the stock price by 0.4%, indicating that Gulf investors are transferring profits to US dollar assets at a rate of 3.7 times the usual rate, waiting for CPI data to trigger exchange rate fluctuations. ⑸ The Federal Reserve's policy shackles show their power: Even if the probability of interest rate cuts in September is as high as 90%, the Gulf currency pegged to the US dollar is still trapped in a liquidity trap, and the level of flattening of the sovereign debt yield curve has reached the most extreme level since 2008.

UK Treasury yields fell before the release of key data this week

UK Treasury yields fell before the release of key data this week, including the UK labour market data on Tuesday and GDP data on Wednesday. If these data perform weakly, it could push back the Bank of England's prospects for a rate cut. Last week, the market lowered its rate cut expectations after the Bank of England voted in favor of a rate cut with a narrow margin. Judging from market pricing, the UK currency market is no longer confident about the Bank of England's expectations of interest rate cuts this year. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the likelihood of a rate cut in December is 76%. Tradeweb data shows that the 10-year UK Treasury yield fell about 4 basis points to 4.558%.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1619, a drop of 0.20%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro against the dollar price fell on the last trading day due to the stability of the stubborn resistance of 1.1670. After reaching the overbought level, the euro against the dollar price faces negative pressure on the decline as negative signs on the (RSI) are emerging to continue trying to get the positive momentum needed to recover and break through that resistance, with the short-term basis of the bull market dominating.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3422, a drop of 0.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price fluctuated at its final intraday level, with bullish correction waves dominant at the trend line, indicating the strength and quantity of bullish momentum of the currency pair. In addition to positive signals after unloading overbought conditions (RSI), positive pressure from trading above the EMA50 continues, opening the way for more gains in the near future.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell and is now at 3355.27, a drop of 1.23%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price deepened its losses in the last intraday trading, and the price tried to find a rising high as a basis to help it get the positive momentum it needed to recover, relying on its EMA50 support that prevented losses since the start of the trading, with the RSI reaching oversold levels and being exaggerated xmtraders.compared to the price action.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 37.726, a drop of 1.50%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, when (RSI) negative signals appear, the (silver) price fell up and down at the intraday level of the last trading day, trying to find a rising high as the basis may help it gain positive momentum to help it recover and rise again, relying on its EMA50 support, which helps it rise to reduce some final losses, accompanied by a slight bullish tendency in the short term.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 64.210, an increase of 0.53%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price rose in the final intraday trading, regaining some of the previous lost ground, supported by positive (RSI) signals, bearish trends dominated, and trading prices below EMA50, exacerbating negative pressure.

4. Institutional view

UBS: Lower Brent oil price expectations to US$62, pressure on supply surplus intensifies

⑴ UBS's latest report pointed out that due to strong crude oil production in South America, continued increase in production in the U.S. sanctioned countries and increased inventory expectations, oil prices will be lower than previous expectations. ⑵ Brazil's production hit a record high after weak in 2024, with the United States approving Chevron to resume Venezuela operations and suspending stricter sanctions on Russian oil buyers except India. Iran's production has also maintained a high for many years. ⑶UBS lowers its Brent crude oil target price from $68 to $62 by the end of 2025, and is expected to rebound to $65 in mid-2026. The current benchmark oil price is $66 per barrel.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: "Double Strike" of inflation and huge bond issuance. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on August 11". It was carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Every successful person has a beginning. Be brave to start,Find the way to success. Read the next article now!