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US inflation data may heat up, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 12
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: US inflation data may heat up, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 12." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market trends
The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.05%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.06%. The German DAX index fell 0.49%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.07%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.10%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.31%.
2. Market news interpretation
U.S. inflation data may heat up, and the Fed's interest rate cut drama may add variables
⑴ The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July will be announced tonight in Beijing time. The market expects annual inflation rate to accelerate from 2.7% in June to 2.8%. ⑵ What is more worthy of attention is that the annual rate of core CPI is expected to rise from 2.9% to 3.0%, and the monthly rate growth is also expected to reach 0.3%, the largest increase since January. ⑶ Market analysis believes that this inflationary trend may be affected by Trump's tariff remarks, resulting in the transfer of tariffs to consumer prices, especially xmtraders.commodity prices, which will continue to rise. ⑷ Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, if inflation data rises beyond expectations, it may challenge the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, which in turn triggers violent fluctuations in the US dollar. ⑸ Some analysts pointed out that between inflation and employment data, the Federal Reserve's decision-making will face a dilemma, and the market is paying close attention to how it will balance the two to determine the future direction of monetary policy.
Swiss National Bank's "silent" action: Swiss franc is undercurrent
⑴Reuters reported that during a period of relatively calm market activities, the Swiss National Bank may be considering cutting its massive foreign exchange reserves. ⑵ Data shows that Swiss franc demand deposits increased by CHF 37 billion between June and July, suggesting that the Swiss National Bank may have conducted foreign exchange intervention to curb the appreciation of the Swiss franc. ⑶ The total foreign exchange reserves of Swiss francs reached 716 billion Swiss francs in early July. ⑷ Given the sharp increase in current deposits, foreign exchange reserves may rise further, providing the Swiss National Bank with room to cut reserves. ⑸ Usually, the Swiss National Bank tends to reduce reserves when market conditions are favorable, and the current relatively calm market environment and stock market boom are a good opportunity to do this. ⑹ If the Swiss National Bank chooses to cut reserves, it means it may sell off the pound, yen, Canadian dollar, euro and dollar, and this move may put the Swiss franc under greater downward pressure.
Geopolitical turning point The Russian-US ceasefire agreement may become the "terminator" of global inflation
⑴ Some analysts pointed out that the agreement between Russia and the United States on the Ukrainian ceasefire may further alleviate global inflation pressure by lowering natural gas prices. ⑵The presidents of the two countries will meet in Alaska on Friday, and both sides expressed their hope to reach an agreement to end the conflict. ⑶ If a ceasefire agreement is reached, it will provide support for global deflation, especially in regions such as Central and Eastern Europe and Türkiye. ⑷This impact is mainly due to the emotional boost from the easing of geopolitical tensions, rather than the return of Russian gas to European markets. ⑸ However, if the ceasefire agreement is not reached, the United States may impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil and gas importers, which will become the main driver of the market.
The economic outlook is worrying! The German ZEW economic index fell more than expected, why did market confidence collapse?
⑴ The German ZEW economic prosperity index fell sharply to 34.7 points in August, far lower than the market expectations of 39.8 points, and fell sharply from 52.7 points in July. ⑵This result reflects general disappointment in the U.S.-EU trade deal and concerns about Germany's poor economic performance in the second quarter. ⑶ Data shows that Germany's GDP shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter, mainly because demand for the United States weakened after the early purchase behavior caused by tariff remarks ended. ⑷ The current economic situation index has also deteriorated significantly, falling from -59.5 points last month to -68.6 points, indicating that investors' pessimism about the current economic environment has become stronger. ⑸ Some economists believe that although the agreement reduces uncertainty in trade policy, it may also lead to the European Central Bank suspending interest rate cuts in the short term. ⑹Looking forward, the market is concerned about the continued nature of the trade truce and believes that the economic environment may remain difficult in the second half of the year, but some analysts also expect that the government's large-scale investment plan will help economic recovery.
The labor-management dispute ends! Can the 8.5% salary increase agreement calm the anger? Unite union of the UK confirmed that 200 workers at RepsolResources have accepted a two-year 8.5% salary increase agreement, ending the maritime labor dispute. ⑵The conclusion of this agreement means it was originally scheduled for August 13The strikes on August 28 and September 4 were all cancelled. ⑶ The value of this salary increase agreement is an 8.5% increase in salary within two years, which significantly increases workers' salary and benefits. ⑷ The cancellation of the strike has brought operational stability to the oil xmtraders.company and avoided production disruptions and potential economic losses. ⑸ This incident shows that the negotiated salary increase agreement successfully eased the conflict between labor and capital. The RBA has been on the ground for interest rate cuts, and will the economic outlook "soft land"?
⑴ The RBA has lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% as scheduled, and this move was unanimously agreed. ⑵ The bank's expectations for economic outlook have been lowered, reducing its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%. ⑶ Nevertheless, the RBA predicts that unemployment and core inflation will stabilize at 4.3% and 2.6%, suggesting that the economy is moving towards a better balance. ⑷ Some analysts pointed out that the RBA's interest rate cut cycle may not have ended yet, and it is expected that the interest rate will be cut again in the fourth quarter, reducing the final interest rate to 3.35%. ⑸ The RBA emphasized that it will continue to make decisions based on overall data rather than a single data point. If the economy slows down sharply, deeper easing will not be ruled out.
Alarm! The benchmark price of the Middle East crude oil fell to a new low in more than a month, and market demand was weak
⑴ The benchmark price of the Middle East crude oil continued to fall, and the premiums of Oman and Dubai crude oil both fell to their lowest levels in more than a month. ⑵Dubai spot crude oil premium to swap contracts fell 21 cents to $2.27 a barrel, reflecting strong bearish sentiment in the market. ⑶Qatar Energy is about to auction multiple crude oil cargoes loaded in October, which may further aggravate market concerns about oversupply. ⑷ At the same time, it is reported that an Indian refinery plans to conduct maintenance and shutdowns for about 40 days in November, which may also have an impact on short-term crude oil demand. ⑸ Despite sporadic trade activities, the general decline in benchmark prices in the Middle East shows that the market is facing the double pressure of weak demand and oversupply.
More than 2.6 trillion euros of deposits, the ECB liquidity flooded
⑴ European Central Bank data show that the use of overnight loan instruments increased from zero the previous day to 2 million euros, indicating that the short-term funding demand of individual banks has increased. ⑵ At the same time, the use of overnight deposit instruments reached 2.68 trillion euros, a further increase from 2.669 trillion euros the previous day, setting a new high. ⑶This huge deposit scale reflects that liquidity is still surplus in the European banking system and that funds have a strong desire to seek hedge. ⑷ Despite minor lending activities, banks generally tend to deposit funds into the ECB rather than use them for credit or investment. ⑸ These data show that although the European Central Bank is tightening its monetary policy, the large amount of liquidity it injects into the market has not been fully absorbed and the capital is inefficient.
3. The trend of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell, and is now at 1.1607, a drop0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (EURUSD) price fell in the final intraday trading, with a slight bearish tendency in the short term, ready to break through the key support level 1.1610, representing the neckline of the short-term negative technical pattern, namely the double-top pattern, especially after it successfully abandoned some obvious oversold conditions on (RSI), and although the positive pressure on its trading above the EMA50 continues, it opens the way to record more losses.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3460, an increase of 0.20%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose slightly in the last intraday trading as it broke the bullish correction trend line on a short-term basis, after falling due to the stability of the key resistance of 1.3475 in an attempt to recover some of the losses and unload some of the oversold conditions on the (RSI), while continuing to bear positive pressure from trading above the EMA50.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3342.36, a drop of 0.01%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price succumbed to negative pressure in the last intraday trading, and the negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continued, affected by breaking the secondary bullish trend line on a short-term basis. This precious metal successfully unloaded some obvious oversold conditions on (RSI), opening the way for more losses recorded in the near future.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 37.676, an increase of 0.23%. Before New York, the (silver) price fell in the last intraday trading to gain positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, here it gained positive and dynamic support from trading above the EMA50 and, under the lead of the main bullish trend, trading along the secondary support slash of the trend, noting the appearance of positive signals on (RSI) after reaching oversold levels.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 63.470, a drop of 0.77%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices rose cautiously in the last intraday trading, supported by positive signals from (RSI), retesting the key resistance level of $63.75, while touching a small bearish trend line on a short-term basis to monitor the price trend.
4. Institutional view
Institutional: UK employment data is unlikely to lead to a faster rate cut in the Bank of England
UK labor market data released on Tuesday showed that employment in July fell slightly, down 8,000. Bruna Skarica, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note that the data are unlikely to inspire confidence in the Bank of England's rapid rate cut. "The idleness of the British labor market continues to increase, but its speed will not shift the Bank of England's attention from food and overall inflation." LSEGData shows that the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December at 68%.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: US inflation data may heat up, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 12" was carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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