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Tep will succeed! Will gold fall below 3300 next week?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Tep will succeed! Gold falls below 3300 next week?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The Russian-US meeting was attracting global attention, with a harmonious atmosphere, and progress was made, but no agreement was reached, and no result was the biggest result of the talks!
On the red carpet welcoming Putin, the scenes of F-22 fighter jets and B-2 bombers passing overhead have spread the entire network, and the meeting also began with this "muscle show".
The first face-to-face meeting in four years, the first meeting since 2019, is also the first time Putin has set foot on US territory in the past 10 years. After such an introduction, there is no need to be a practical implementation, but this is not the case.
Trump then said: Their meeting was very fruitful and had achieved many things, leaving only a few unresolved points, which were not reached by both sides, but it was a good opportunity now.
Whether from the existing media reports or the speeches of Tep himself, they all show a positive side. In fact, my personal opinion is xmtraders.completely different from these mainstream views, including the information I see. It is different to wanting to solve it and being able to solve it. Negotiating results without results will only intensify the differences.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict lasted for three years. During this period, not only between Russia and the United States, but also the European Union, business with Russia was basically stagnant. It is almost impossible to achieve a xmtraders.complete resolution with just one meeting. I have clearly mentioned this view before, so I am not optimistic about this meeting, and the actual result is as expected.
The fact that the problem cannot be solved is not what we see on the surface, but that each of us is unable to meet the other party’s needs in a short period of time. Can we make concessions? It's the key.
In a deeper sense, what Russia needs is the occupied territory, or exchange territory for economy,The US hopes that the other side will give up its territory and then loosen its restrictions on Russia. This loosening is not only the US side, but also the EU. How can it be relaxed? How to loosen? This process is xmtraders.complex, difficult and time-consuming because it involves the interests of all parties.
Will Tep fail? success?
Originally, they were expressing their own demands through some channels, but in fact, this meeting directly broke the middle window paper. How much room can there be for maneuver? It is difficult to sort out, otherwise the original lunch will be cancelled after the talks, and such a hasty ending makes the situation in Russia and Ukraine even more pending.
In terms of data this week, the CPI in July decreased, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September was instantly increased, and the subsequent PPI data exceeded expectations again. One drop and one increase in these two data led to a change in the expectation of interest rate cuts. Coupled with the subsequent hawk speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, the bullish sentiment in the gold market fell accordingly.
Immediately afterwards, the July retail sales data released on Friday remained consistent with expectations. The actual value of the New York Fed manufacturing index in August rose sharply to 11.9, because the previous value was only 5.5 and the expected value was 0. The final value of this time hit a new high since November last year.
There is a decrease in CPI before to support interest rate cuts, and the increase in PPI afterwards does not support interest rate cuts. What exactly is it? The rise of the manufacturing index seems to have "cleared the direction", that is, the majority do not support interest rate cuts. Of course, neither this data nor the above data can xmtraders.completely determine the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but will make the makers tend to do so.
The data are sometimes good and sometimes bad. The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut follow the changes. Can it be lowered? Don't worry, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hall Global Central Bank Annual Meeting next week. The market is looking forward to providing clues to interest rate cuts. After all, the time is getting closer to next month's Fed interest rate decision.
The gold market is swaying left and right under the influence of the above events and data and finally falling. The weekly line closes negative, the daily line closes negative, and all cycle indicators turn down, which is consistent with the direction of the K-line, and is technically bearish, and the price closes at a low level, so there is a probability of gold price retracement next week.
In the short term, the support below the international gold price will first look at 3310. If it falls below the level, it will be necessary to xmtraders.compete around the 3300 mark, that is, to accumulate momentum and rise again. The reason why we are optimistic about rise again is that the data is not enough to xmtraders.completely reverse the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. The Tepco meeting did not reach an agreement, and there will be no actual implementation! The crisis has not been lifted yet, and risk aversion can be increased at any time. Global economic growth under the influence of tariffs has become weak, and excessive currency issuance and depreciation are even more difficult to stop, and the upward trend of gold cannot be changed.
The market is changing rapidly, and trading needs to be flexibly responded and interpreted in a more detailed and timely manner. We will give it again next Monday, so remember to pay attention.
(The above sharing is purely personal opinion and does not constitute practical operational advice. Financial management is risky, you have to bear the profit and loss at your own risk)
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Tep will succeed! Gold falls below 3300 next week?", which is carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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