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The annual meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian peace dawn and Jackson Hole central bank
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The Dawn of Peace in Russia and Ukraine and Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Whether Russia and Ukraine can reach a peace agreement and how to achieve peace is the focus of global attention this week, and for the financial markets, the Jackson Hall central bank annual meeting may reveal more clues about the prospects for the Fed's interest rate.
Last week's market review
With the release of data such as US CPI (less than expected), PPI (higher than expected), retail sales (in line with expectations), the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September remained at around 85%.
On the news, although the summit between Trump and Putin did not reach an agreement on the Ukraine issue, it opened the door for future peace talks and improved the relationship between the United States and Russia to a certain extent.
The US dollar index fell to 97.83 for two consecutive weeks, with non-US currencies mixed, with the British pound continuing to lead the gains, the euro and the yen leading the gains, but the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar weekly. Gold fluctuated downward to close at $3,336, and WTI fell 1.6% in a single week and then fell below $62.
The three major U.S. indexes continued to rise last week and collectively set new historical highs, but large technology stocks performed mediocrely, while the Dow Jones Index rose even more. Globally, the Nikkei index rose 3.73% in a single week and broke through 43,000 points for the first time in history, leading the growth rate in major global stock indexes.
Outlook for this week
·Dawn of Peace
After the Double General Assembly, territorial exchanges and security guarantees for Ukraine have become important prerequisites for the peace agreement, and future negotiations may continue to deepen on this basis.
Ukrainian President Zelensky will go to the White House to meet with Trump on Monday. Leaders of major European countries such as Britain, France, Germany and Italy are expected to attend together to avoid another quarrel between the two sides. How to provide UkrainePost-war security will become the focus of today's meeting, and Russia is open to this.
Unlike Trump who prioritizes "reach of an agreement", Europe advocates that a ceasefire must be first before peace talks and Ukraine must join the negotiations, while Russia insists that the ceasefire is territorial concession. Obviously, Trump and Putin's positions have become more similar after the bilateral summit, which is also expected to accelerate the negotiation process.
Military industrial stocks, gold and energy markets may be more sensitive to the progress of the geopolitical situation. The figure below shows a xmtraders.comparison of the annual increase and decrease of relevant targets. For the energy market, if Trump eases sanctions on Russian crude oil exports and joins forces with Russia to carry out natural gas development in Alaska, crude oil and gas prices may continue to be under pressure.
In addition, news that the United States will not impose additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian crude oil helped Asia-Pacific stock markets rise slightly early on Monday, with European and American stock index futures rising collectively.
·Powell's speech—Friday 22:00 (Beijing time)
The annual Jackson Hall Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 21 to 23. Many important monetary policy shifts in history have been announced to the public through the annual meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to speak on Friday night, and the market will closely monitor whether he will send a clear signal of a rate cut in September (lower probability), or continue to be cautious ahead of the next inflation and non-farm announcement to cool down current rate cut expectations (good for the dollar).
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting will be released at 2:00 a.m. Tuesday, and will also announce the results of the five-year monetary policy framework review in late August and early September.
·U.S. Stock Financial Report
The peak of the second quarter financial report has passed, and the year-on-year growth rate of the S&P 500 reached 11%, among which the EPS growth rate of the six giants except Nvidia reached 26%, all far exceeding expectations. Retail giants such as Home Depot (Tuesday) and Walmart (Thursday) will announce their results this week, which will show whether consumer spending is affected by tariffs.
·New Zealand Federal Reserve Interest Rate Resolution—10:00 on Wednesday
The market generally expects the central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3%. If a "double rate cut" occurs, it may cause the New York dollar to fall in the short term. First, below, focus on the 200-day moving average, that is, around 0.5837. At the same time, you can also pay attention to the short-term fluctuations of AUDNZD after the announcement of the meeting resolution.
XAUUSD daily chart
The overall trend of gold after the sharp drop last Monday was moderate and weak. The geopolitical situation has not yet had a clear impact on the gold price, but bears in the small cycle are gradually gaining an advantage. This week, or test the 100-day moving average again toAnd the support near the trend line 3305/20, it may fall below the previous low of 3270 line after falling below.
The rebound direction first needs to be paid attention to 3350/55. Last week, the bulls and bears fought fiercely around this position, followed by the integer mark of 3400, where there is greater resistance.
The implied volatility of gold in the week continued to fall to 13.19%, implying that the gold price is likely to fluctuate between 3273.85-3398.31 this week.
JP2254 hours
Source: TradingView
The Nikkei Index rose sharply for two consecutive weeks and set new historical highs. The dust settled in US-Japan trade and tariff negotiations cleared the uncertainty surrounding the Japanese stock market, benefiting the profit prospects of export-oriented xmtraders.companies (such as Toyota and other automakers), and global investors returned.
From the weekly level, the next phase target of the bulls should be around 46,700 points, but the daily and below levels may face the test of overbought pullback. However, under the support of an optimistic market atmosphere and the substantial positive impact of profit improvement, buying on dips is still the main choice at present.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The annual meeting of the Central Bank of Russia and Ukraine Peace Dawn and Jackson Hole". It was carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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