Japanese bond yields approached a new high, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 19

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures rose 0.05%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.14%. The German DAX index rose 0.25%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.36%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.81%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.64%.

2. Market news interpretation

Japanese bond yields approached a new high, and the yen trend was facing a choice

⑴ According to the report of Scotiabank's chief foreign exchange strategist, the yen has risen slightly against the US dollar, and is performing in the G10 currency. ⑵Japan Treasury bond (JGB) yields are backed by support, with short-term yields approaching recent highs, while 10-year yields are approaching their highs in recent decades. ⑶ Investors are closely following the upcoming trade, PMI and consumer price index (CPI) data for further guidance. ⑷ Strategists say the CPI data is crucial, as both core and overall inflation are expected to remain around 3%. ⑸ On the technical side, the US dollar-JPY exchange rate is neutral in the short term, but the medium-term risk is biased towards bearish. ⑹ They expect that if the dollar falls below the 50-day moving average of 146.6 against the yen, their target will point to near the late May low of 142.

India's tax cut plan has caused fiscal concerns Treasury bond volatility hit a three-year high

India's benchmark Treasury bond volatility jumped to a three-year high, as plans to cut consumption taxes sparked market concerns, and the government may increase bond issuance to make up for the fiscal revenue gap. India's 10-year Treasury bondThe volatility index hit its highest level since October 2022 on Tuesday. This week, the benchmark Treasury bond suffered its largest sell-off in nearly two years, reversing the rise caused by a rare sovereign credit rating uptick last Thursday. The proposed tax reform has raised concerns about the ability to digest new bond supply this year. Volatility may continue at a time when the extent to which government fiscal revenue may be impacted is unclear. HSBC Holdings expects the relevant tax adjustments to cost about Rs 1.4 trillion (US$16 billion), equivalent to 0.4% of India's GDP.

Forest fires continue in many places in Spain. The government will launch a national-level rescue mechanism.

Forest fires continue in many places in Spain, causing serious losses. On August 19, local time, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez said that the government will formally approve aid measures next Tuesday (26th) and declare the affected areas as "severe disaster areas" in order to activate the national-level relief and xmtraders.compensation mechanism. The Spanish Meteorological Department warned that the existing fire points are still not fully controlled and the risk of new fires still exists.

3 details to see the changes in Zelensky's visit to the White House again

On the afternoon of the 18th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the White House again and held a meeting with US President Trump. xmtraders.compared with the White House meeting half a year ago, the atmosphere of the "Terze Meeting" was significantly eased, and many details are worth paying attention to: Half a year ago, US Vice President Vance accused Zelensky of being ungrateful and "not even saying thank you"; during this visit, Zelensky said "thank you" four times in one breath in one go. Half a year ago, an American reporter accused Zelensky of "not wearing a suit"; this time Zelensky changed his usual military uniform style and wore a suit. Half a year ago, Zelensky and Trump had a fierce quarrel. During this meeting, Trump and Zelensky watched on a map of Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky said he had a long discussion with Trump on territorial issues. However, he also said that all sensitive matters, including territorial issues, will be discussed during the meeting between the leaders of the United States, Russia and Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine continue to fight in many important places in Donetsk

The Russian-Ukraine war continues. At present, the two sides are still fighting fiercely in the Red Army City (called Pokrovsk in Ukraine) in the important city of the Donetsk region, as well as Dobropilla, Konstantinivka and other places. Russia said it continued to attack Ukrainian facilities in the Red Army City and other directions. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported on the 19th that in the past day, a total of 186 battles occurred in the front line area, of which in the direction of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian army prevented the Russian army from attacking multiple settlements in a total of 67 times.

Retail financial report warning, Wall Street is waiting for Powell

⑴ After Jiadebao's financial report was lower than expected, U.S. stock index futures performed sluggishly, with Dow futures rising 0.01%, S&P 500 futures falling 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 futures falling 0.14%. ⑵ Home Depot's stock price fell 0.6% before the market, as its quarterly results failed to meet expectations, reflecting that consumers have reduced spending on large-scale home improvement projects. ⑶ xmtraders.company dynamicsIn terms of fact, Intel's share price rose 5.4% after receiving US$2 billion injected by Japan's SoftBank Group. ⑷ The stock price of cybersecurity xmtraders.company Palo AltoNetworks rose 6% after predicting revenue and profits in fiscal 2026 will exceed expectations. ⑸ Investors are paying attention to the impact of Trump's tariff remarks on corporate prospects and consumer spending, after data showed that tariffs hit consumer confidence in July. ⑹The market is betting that there will be two 25 basis points cuts this year, with the first rate cut expected in September. ⑺S&P Global Ratings confirmed the US "AA+" credit rating, believing that the revenue brought by Trump's tariff remarks will offset some of the fiscal shocks. ⑻The market focus will be focused on the Jackson Hall meeting later this week to find clues to the Fed's future policy path.

The momentum of steepening of US bonds weakens, and the European curve is ready to go

⑴ After the New York market opened, crude oil futures prices fell by more than 1%, to around $62.60 per barrel, triggering a moderate "bull market steepening" in the US bond yield curve. ⑵ The 30-year Treasury yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.919%, while the two-year Treasury yield fell by only about 1 basis point. The market is waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech at Jackson Hall. ⑶ Nevertheless, the market continues to be optimistic about the steepening of the curve, driven mainly by expectations of a 67% chance of a 100 basis point cut by next July, as well as concerns about Trump’s tariff rhetoric and structural inflation. ⑷IFR News Analysis believes that the steepening momentum of the US Treasury curve is weakening, while the steepening trend of the European bond market has just begun. ⑸ It is also reported that S&P Global Ratings confirmed the U.S. credit rating, saying that the revenue brought by Trump’s tariff remarks will help offset the fiscal impact. ⑹In addition, EU exports to the United States fell 10% year-on-year in June, the lowest level since the end of 2023.

Indian Islamic bond auction successfully raised 9 trillion rupiah

⑴Indonesian Ministry of Finance announced on Tuesday that the country successfully raised 9 trillion rupiah through Islamic bond auction. ⑵ Among them, the weighted average yield of Islamic Treasury bills that expire in February 2026 is 5.28,000%, while that expires in May 2026 is 5.32,000%. ⑶ In terms of project-type Sucook bonds, the weighted average yield due in January 2027 is 5.47170%, and the weighted average yield due in July 2028 is 5.67990%. ⑷ The yield of long-term bonds is higher, with the weighted average yield due in June 2039 being 6.67871%. ⑸ The yield of project-type Sucook bonds that expire in July 2041 is 6.78917%. ⑹In this auction, the bond with the longest maturity date was December 2049, with its weighted average yield of 6.87940%.

The data exceeded expectations, and the euro zone's current account hit a new high in one year

⑴ Data released by the European Central Bank on Tuesday showed that the euro zone's current account surplus rose to a new year in JuneHigh, reaching 36 billion euros, up from 32 billion euros in May. ⑵ Data shows that the eurozone's trade surplus in goods fell from 33 billion euros to 23 billion euros, while the service trade surplus increased from 14 billion euros in May to 16 billion euros. ⑶ The primary income surplus jumped from 1 billion euros to 14 billion euros, while the secondary income deficit expanded from 16 billion euros to 17 billion euros. ⑷ For the past 12 months to June this year, the current account surplus totaled 318 billion euros, equivalent to 2.0% of the euro zone GDP, down from 386 billion euros (2.6% of GDP) in the same period last year. ⑸ Financial account data shows that in the past 12 months, euro zone residents have bought 814 billion euros of non-euro zone securities, while non-euro zone securities are bought 749 billion euros of euro zone securities.

The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party needs to obtain 172 support for the launch of the interim presidential election process

⑴ The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party’s Presidential Election Management xmtraders.committee began today to discuss whether to hold an interim presidential election and is asking the members of the MPs to confirm their intentions in writing. ⑵ According to regulations, early elections must be supported by more than half (172) of the party’s 295 MPs and 47 local branch representatives. ⑶ The Liberal Democratic Party held a general meeting of members of the two houses of parliament on the 8th to discuss the disastrous defeat in the Senate election. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated his resignation in the face of the party's resignation.

Tariff shocks were lower than expected, Medtronic raised its full-year profit guidance

⑴ Medical device maker Medtronic raised its profit forecast for fiscal year 2026 on August 19, Beijing time. ⑵ The xmtraders.company said it expects Trump's tariff remarks to have a smaller impact than previously expected. ⑶Medtronic currently expects adjusted profits to be between $5.60 and $5.66 per share for the whole year. ⑷ Previous forecast range was $5.50 to $5.60 per share. ⑸ Investors have high expectations for medical device manufacturers, as these xmtraders.companies benefit from strong demand for non-emergency surgeries, especially among the elderly in the United States. ⑹Medtronic lowered its expected tariff impact to approximately $185 million. ⑺Previously, the xmtraders.company estimated that the tariff impact ranged from US$200 million to US$350 million.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1683, an increase of 0.18%. Before New York City, the price of (EUR/USD) rose on the last trading day, depending on the stability of the key support level 1.1650, and after reaching the oversold level, it provides a positive motivation to help prices recover with the support of (RSI) positive signals.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3521, an increase of 0.12%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price will continue to drop on the last trading dayThe decline, affected by a short-term breakout of the bullish correction bias line, supported by the appearance of negative signals of (RSI), despite reaching oversold levels, is still relying on its EMA50 support, which may temporarily reduce the upcoming losses.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3337.84, an increase of 0.16%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after reaching oversold levels, the (gold) price expanded its gains in the last intraday trading, supported by a positive signal from the (RSI), providing temporary impetus to help it test the upper limit of the bearish correction channel, which limits its previous short-term trading.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 38.066, an increase of 0.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose in the last session, trying to get rid of its obvious oversold condition against (RSI), especially as the positive signal begins to reach its EMA50 resistance level, breaking through the small bullish trend line in the short term, exacerbating the possibility of a recent price rebound.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell and is now at 62.060, a drop of 1.02%. Before New York, the (crude oil) price fell in the final intraday trading, ready to break through the key support level at $62.00 as negative pressure from its trading below the EMA50 continues and is dominated by a small bearish wave in the short term under the main bearish trend.

4. Institutional View

JPMorgan Chase: US Treasury Client Survey showed that as of the week ending August 18, the proportion of shorts fell by 4 percentage points, turning neutral, and the proportion of longs remained unchanged. The proportion of bears and neutrals hit the lowest and highest levels since July 14, respectively.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Japanese bond yields approaching a new high, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on August 19" was carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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