Multiple positive factors limited the decline in oil prices, weak economic data supported gold prices and rebounded from a one-week low.

Basic news

On Wednesday (November 19, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around $4,072 per ounce. Gold rebounded after hitting a one-week low on Tuesday. Mainly driven by weak U.S. employment data, which strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in December; U.S. crude oil traded around $60.68 per barrel. Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher on Tuesday under the influence of multiple factors. U.S. President Trump announced that he had started interviews for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, boosting market risk appetite.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks continued their decline on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 index closing lower for the fourth consecutive trading day, setting a record for its longest losing streak in three months. Technology stocks continued to xmtraders.come under pressure as concerns about overvaluation continued, while Home Depot tumbled on a weak outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.07% to 46,091.74 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.83% to 6,617.32 points, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.21% to 22,432.85 points.

Investor sentiment was suppressed by multiple factors. On the one hand, the market's concerns about the valuation of technology stocks, especially artificial intelligence-related stocks, continue to exist. Star stock Nvidia fell 2.8% before the earnings report was released, adding to the market's cautious atmosphere. On the other hand, Home Depot's stock price fell 6% after its quarterly profit fell short of expectations and its full-year profit outlook was disappointing, dragging down market performance.

The market is paying close attention to two key events: Nvidia's earnings report to be released after the market closes on Wednesday, and the U.S. September non-farm payrolls report, which was postponed to Thursday due to the government shutdown. These events will benefit businessesProvide important clues to profit trends and the Fed’s policy path.

Despite the overall strong performance during the earnings season, with earnings of S&P 500 xmtraders.companies growing 16.9% year-on-year, much higher than expected, the market is still weak. Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, pointed out that "there is fear in the market." Technically, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have fallen below their 50-day moving averages for the first time since the end of April, indicating weakening short-term momentum. However, some analysts believe that the recent sell-off may be excessive, and Jefferies pointed out in the report that the market is brewing signs of a rebound.

Gold Market

Spot gold rebounded from a one-week low on Tuesday, finally closing at $4,072.37 an ounce. The rebound was largely driven by weak U.S. employment data, which boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in December.

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose to a two-month high last week, indicating that the labor market is cooling, which provides room for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates. According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has risen to nearly 50%. The data "slightly increased market hopes for a December interest rate cut" and helped gold prices stop falling and rebound.

Investors’ attention has now turned to key information to be released, including Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the U.S. September employment report, which was postponed to Thursday for some reason, which will provide clearer guidance on the outlook for interest rates.

Deutsche Bank analysts maintain an optimistic view that official demand for gold will "continue to heat up in the foreseeable future," which supports the bank's forecast for the average gold price to reach $4,000 per ounce next year.

In terms of other precious metals, spot silver was at $50.78 an ounce, up 1.2%; platinum was at $1,541.57, up 0.5%; palladium was at $1,408.52, up 1.1%.

Oil market

Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher on Tuesday under the influence of multiple factors. As of the close, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.07% to close at US$64.89 per barrel; US crude oil futures rose 1.39% to close at US$60.74 per barrel, hitting a high of US$60.92 during the session.

The main factors driving the rise in oil prices xmtraders.come from two aspects. In terms of geopolitics, the U.S. Treasury Department confirmed that the sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil since October have begun to take effect, not only squeezing Russia's oil revenue but also expected to further restrict its future export scale, which has triggered market concerns about tightening supply.

At the macro policy level, U.S. President Trump announced that he has started interviews for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. This news has significantly boosted market risk appetite. Analysts pointed out that market expectations are that the new chairman appointed by Trump may pursue easier monetary policy, and lower borrowing costs usually help stimulate oil demand.

However, the market still faces constraints from supply and demand fundamentals. Goldman Sachs’ latest forecast showsIt said that oil prices will continue to be under pressure in 2026 due to oversupply, but it also warned that if Russian oil production drops sharply due to sanctions, Brent oil prices may exceed US$70 per barrel in 2026/2027. Market participants are currently paying close attention to the upcoming U.S. crude oil inventory data. Morning API data showed that inventories increased more than expected to 4.448 million barrels, and gasoline inventories also increased by 1.546 million barrels. During the day, they will focus on evening EIA data.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar continued its gains against the yen on Tuesday, hitting a nine-and-a-half-month high during the session, and also strengthened against the euro. Market concerns about Japan's fiscal policy continue to simmer, while investors are waiting for key U.S. data to provide clear direction for the Federal Reserve's policy path.

The U.S. dollar index edged up 0.02% to 99.55. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% against the yen to 155.58 yen. It hit 155.73 in the morning, the highest level since February 3. The euro fell 0.07% against the U.S. dollar to 1.1584 U.S. dollars.

The strength of the US dollar is mainly due to two factors. In Japan, although Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that he may raise interest rates as early as next month, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae expressed dissatisfaction with this and asked the central bank to cooperate with the government to revive the economy. This policy disagreement triggered market concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline. Barclays Bank analysis believes that Prime Minister Takaichi's implementation of Abenomics-style policies will continue to put pressure on the yen.

In the United States, recent data show signs of economic slowdown, but expectations for interest rate cuts are weakening. Data from the Cleveland Fed showed that 39,000 Americans received layoff notices last month, and an ADP report showed that employers were laying off an average of 2,500 workers per week. Strategists pointed out: Looking at the market on paper, there is really no reason to cut interest rates at the moment.

Market focus turns to the U.S. September employment report expected to be released on Thursday, which will provide important clues to the Fed's next move. The money market currently predicts that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut next month is about 51%, which is significantly lower than last week's 60%. Opinions remain divided within the Fed, with Governor Waller continuing to find reasons for cutting interest rates, while Vice Chairman Jefferson advocated the need to "move slowly."

International News

Controversy over Trump's 50-year mortgage plan heats up

The Trump administration announced earlier this month that it is studying a plan to introduce a 50-year mortgage term for home buyers, hoping to help Americans reduce their mortgage burden. Some economists told the media on Tuesday that the Trump administration's proposed 50-year home loan may lower monthly payments, but would increase lifetime interest and slow asset accumulation. Industry experts point to legal and securitization hurdles for the 50-year mortgage program.

Trump calls for the development of "unified federal standards" for artificial intelligence regulation

Trump said that the United States should develop "unified federal standards" for artificial intelligence models, rather than having each state set them individually to form a fragmented regulatory system.. He also called for it to be included in the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Trump made the above remarks in a post on TruthSocial. “Put it into the NDAA, or pass a separate bill,” Trump said in another TruthSocial post. Trump said "over-regulation by states is threatening" investments in artificial intelligence.

The scale of U.S. Treasury bonds held overseas was close to a record level in September

The scale of U.S. Treasury bonds held overseas in September fell slightly from the record high in August, with the UK holdings declining and Japan continuing to increase its holdings. U.S. Treasury securities held by foreign investors totaled $9.25 trillion in September, down from $9.26 trillion in August. Holding size is affected by a xmtraders.combination of net selling or net buying and valuation changes. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index rose in both August and September. The U.S. Treasury Department released data for August and September on Tuesday, after the department's data release plans were disrupted due to the federal government shutdown.

Federal Reserve Board Barr is worried that the Fed's loosening of regulations may lead to the accumulation of risks

Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr warned that weakening the Fed's regulatory strength may lead to the accumulation of "real risks" in the banking system, and the long-term accumulation of these risks may lay the foundation for a crisis. Barr said in prepared remarks on Tuesday at the Kogod School of Business at American University in Washington that regulatory work relies on reliable ratings frameworks, forward-looking supervisory measures and professional and capable staff. He added that measures such as "reducing the scope of examiners, weakening the rating system, and redefining the 'unsafe and unsound' business standards that the banking industry has long followed" will make it difficult for examiners to take action before it is too late.

Russian Prime Minister: The share of SCO countries in global GDP may reach 35% in 2025

On November 18, Russian Prime Minister Mishustin said that the current share of SCO member states in global GDP has reached one-third. Mishustin pointed out that the total export volume of SCO member states in 2024 will account for approximately one-fifth of the global total. By the end of this year, the SCO countries' share of global GDP is expected to reach 35%.

Putin: The visa-free policy for Chinese citizens to visit Russia will take effect in the near future

According to reports from Russia Today (RT) and Russian Satellite Network, on November 18, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the visa-free policy for Chinese citizens to visit Russia will take effect in the near future. According to reports, currently, Russian citizens can travel to China without a visa. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated at a regular press conference on September 2 that in order to further facilitate the exchange of personnel between China and foreign countries, China has decided to expand the scope of visa-free countries. From September 15, 2025 to September 14, 2026, a pilot visa-free policy will be implemented for Russian ordinary passport holders. Russian citizens holding ordinary passports who xmtraders.come to China for business, sightseeing, visiting relatives and friends, exchange visits, or transit for a period not exceeding 30 days can enter China without a visa.

The United States and Saudi Arabia signedEconomic and Defense Partnership Framework

The White House announced the Economic and Defense Partnership Framework between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which includes a civilian nuclear energy agreement, a capital markets technology agreement, a memorandum of understanding on artificial intelligence, and a critical minerals framework. According to documents posted on the White House website, Saudi Arabia was granted access to "world-leading" U.S. artificial intelligence systems. The framework also shows that Saudi Arabia will purchase nearly 300 tanks. U.S. President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a U.S.-Saudi strategic defense agreement, saying it would make it "easier" for U.S. defense xmtraders.companies to operate in Saudi Arabia.

Domestic News

The growth rate of my country's solar thermal industry is more than twice the global average, and the cost will further decline in the next five years

my country's solar thermal industry is developing rapidly at a rate that is more than twice the global average. From the founding meeting of the China Electricity Council’s CSP Branch held on November 18, we learned that my country’s CSP industry has an annual xmtraders.compound growth rate of 11.7%, significantly higher than the global growth rate of 4.24%, and the localization rate of technical equipment has exceeded 95%. Data disclosed at the meeting showed that my country’s solar thermal power grid electricity price has dropped from 1.15 yuan/kWh in the first batch of demonstration projects to about 0.6 yuan/kWh.

my country's first high-pressure natural gas long-distance pipeline residual pressure power generation project was officially put into operation

The reporter learned from the National Pipeline Network today (19th) that my country's first high-pressure natural gas long-distance pipeline residual pressure power generation project, the Haimen Station natural gas residual pressure power generation project, was officially put into operation in Nantong, Jiangsu. The project achieved efficient use of residual pressure resources during high-pressure natural gas transportation, marking my country's breakthrough in the xmtraders.comprehensive utilization of long-distance pipeline energy.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Multiple benefits limit the decline of oil prices, weak economic data supports the recovery of gold prices from a one-week low". It is carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Spring, summer, autumn and winter, every season is a beautiful scenery, and they all stay in my heart forever. Slip away~~~