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Fed officials are dovish and the market is waiting for non-agricultural data. The U.S. dollar index remains slightly volatile, waiting for direction selection.

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Fed officials are dovish and the market is waiting for non-agricultural data, the U.S. dollar index remains slightly volatile, waiting for direction selection." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fluctuated within a narrow range around the 99.55 level during the Asian session on Tuesday. The overall trend was stable, reflecting that the market remained on the sidelines before the release of major data.

Due to the delay in the release of economic data due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, investors generally await official statistics that are about to restart. Thursday's September non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is seen as the most critical driver this week.

Recent xmtraders.comments from Federal Reserve officials continue to reinforce market concerns about a weak labor market. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that given the sharp slowdown in employment growth, the Fed should consider cutting interest rates at its December meeting.

At the same time, Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson also pointed out that the U.S. labor market is in a "sluggish" state, and xmtraders.companies are more cautious in hiring amid policy uncertainty and the trend of artificial intelligence replacing labor.

Under the influence of these factors, market bets on interest rate cuts in December have dropped significantly. According to the CMEFedWatch tool, traders currently believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 43%, down from 62% a week ago, and a significant decline from the market consensus of "almost certain to cut interest rates" a month ago.

Investors are also paying attention to speeches by Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday, including Michael Barr and Thomas Barkin. If the two send hawkish signals, it may boost the U.S. dollar index in the short term.

As the release of U.S. economic data gradually resumes, the market will get more clues to judge the Federal Reserve’sattitude on future policy paths.

This week’s focus non-farm payrolls report (NFP) is expected to add 50,000 people, a slight improvement from 22,000 in August, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.

If the data is weak, the dollar may suffer a broader sell-off; but if it is stronger than expected, it may increase the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset and further weaken market expectations for interest rate cuts.

Overall, the U.S. dollar index maintains a neutral to weak consolidation pattern before waiting for heavy data, and labor market signals will be a key factor in determining the direction of future policy.

Judging from the daily structure, DXY is running below the 20-day moving average, and the short-term trend is still weak, but there is strong support in the 99.50 area. If the index can stabilize in this range and break above the 20-day moving average again (about 99.90), it will open up room for a rebound to 100.50.

At the indicator level, the RSI on the 14th was in the 45-50 range, indicating that the market momentum was neutral and weak, but it did not touch the oversold zone, which means that the short-term may still remain volatile. If it falls below 99.40, the downside target will be the support range between 99.10 and 98.80.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Fed officials are dovish and the market is waiting for non-agricultural data, the U.S. dollar index maintains a slight fluctuation, waiting for direction selection", which was carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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market analysis

Fed officials are dovish and the market is waiting for non-agricultural data. The U.S. dollar index remains slightly volatile, waiting for direction selection.

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Fed officials are dovish and the market is waiting for non-agricultural data. The U.S. dollar index remains slightly volatile, waiting for direction selection.

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason