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Fed meeting minutes reveal serious differences, non-farm payrolls are coming tonight

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal serious differences, and non-agriculture is xmtraders.coming tonight." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 20, in early trading in Asia, spot gold was trading around US$4,050 per ounce. The expected probability of gold prices benefiting from an interest rate cut in December has dropped to 30%. At the same time, policymakers are divided over the issue of interest rate cuts last month. On the other hand, the market is awaiting the September non-farm payrolls report on Thursday night; U.S. crude oil was trading around $59.46 per barrel. Oil prices were affected by the fact that the United States has sent a signal to Ukrainian President Zelensky, asking him to accept the ceasefire framework drafted by the United States, which involves Kyiv giving up some territory and weapons.

The U.S. dollar-yen exchange rate rose strongly on Wednesday, with the yen falling to a ten-month low of 156.97, a single-day decline of 0.92%. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that the government is paying close attention to market dynamics "with a high sense of urgency." This xmtraders.comment failed to reverse the yen's decline.

The market expects that new Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae will launch an economic stimulus plan that may exceed 20 trillion yen. This, xmtraders.combined with his stance of supporting expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, xmtraders.complicates the Bank of Japan's efforts to increase ultra-low interest rates. Scotiabank strategists pointed out that the yen's performance has deviated significantly from fundamentals, and the risk of stronger protests from the Japanese government is rising.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.59% to 100.17. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting showed that although "several" members believed that a rate cut was possible in December, "many" members had ruled out this possibility, causing market expectations for a December rate cut to fall to 33%. Analysts believe that "the situation is not favorable for doves."

The fall in British inflation data strengthened expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December, and GBP/USD fell 0.71% to 1.3050. Market focus turns to the budget to be announced next week, which will continue to affect the pound.

Investors are paying close attention to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls data for September. However, since the October report will no longer be released and the November report will be postponed until after the December Federal Reserve meeting, analysts believe that if the data is weak, it may increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to adopt more aggressive interest rate cuts in the future.

Asian Markets

The Central Bank of China (PBOC) announced on Thursday that it would keep the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged. The one-year and five-year LPRs are 3.00% and 3.50% respectively.

European market

Eurozone CPI was finally set at 2.1% year-on-year in October, slightly lower than 2.2% in September, bringing the overall inflation rate close to the European Central Bank's target. Core CPI remained at 2.4% year-on-year, the same as last month.

The service industry remains the main driver of inflation in the euro zone, contributing +1.54 percentage points, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco, both +0.48 percentage points, while energy stocks were once again a slight drag, falling 0.08 percentage points.

Inflation across the EU fell slightly to 2.5% from 2.6% in September. Price dynamics continue to diverge significantly across member states: Cyprus has the lowest annual interest rate at 0.2%, followed by France (0.8%) and Italy (1.3%). At the other end of the spectrum, Romania remains the exception at 8.4%, with higher figures also seen in Estonia (4.5%) and Latvia (4.3%). xmtraders.compared with the previous month, inflation was slow in 15 member countries, stable in 3 and rising in 9 countries.

British inflation eased in October, with the overall CPI falling from 3.8% to 3.6% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations of 3.5%. Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) reached 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.5% previously.

Goods inflation cooled, to 2.6% year-on-year from 2.9%, while services inflation - still the most stubborn xmtraders.component - fell to 4.5% from 4.7%.

On a monthly basis, the overall CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month.

Data showing a steady slowdown in inflation rather than a sharp decline has left the Bank of England's case for a rate cut in December largely unchanged. Markets are unlikely to materially adjust prices before the fiscal stance is clear in the Autumn Budget. For now, the data reinforces the picture that domestic price pressures have eased but not yet.

US Markets

October's Federal Open Market xmtraders.committee meeting minutes revealed deep policy differences and "strong disagreements" as officials struggled to pull rates toward neutral. While most continue to expect more easing "gradually", many expressed reluctance to cut rates again in December, signaling a more hawkish tone expected by the market. Traders reacted quickly, reducing the likelihood of a December rate cut to about 33%, xmtraders.compared with nearly 50% earlier in the week.

Participants’ views varied widely. Several believe that if the economy develops during the next inter-meeting period,The economy performed as expected and the economy will be strong enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut at the next meeting.

However, "many participants" believe it is more "appropriate" to keep interest rates "unchanged throughout the year" based on their baseline outlook. Others support further easing, but stress that December may not be the right time.

The xmtraders.committee made its second consecutive rate cut in October, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, but Chairman Jerome Powell stressed at a press conference that another adjustment in December was "not a done deal." Internal debate recorded in the meeting minutes supports this caution and suggests greater resistance to front-loading additional cuts.

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