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market analysis
The gold dollar has risen simultaneously again, and one of gold and equity is lying
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Gold and US dollars have seen simultaneous rises again, and one of gold and equity is lying". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (November 19) during the Asia-Europe period, spot gold rebounded after opening slightly and rebounding. In the atmosphere of overall easing inflation in Europe, the U.S. dollar index held on to a one-week high and continued to rebound, which would directly suppress gold, which has no interest income. However, gold and the U.S. dollar index rose together.
However, concerns about the weakness of U.S. economic fundamentals are still limiting the dollar's upside.
The minutes of the FOMC meeting released later today, as well as the US September non-farm payrolls report (NFP) delayed on Thursday, will become the core events that dominate the short-term market trend.
U.S. economic worries superimpose hedging demand, and gold receives structural support
The longest shutdown in the history of the U.S. government has triggered concerns about a slowdown in economic momentum, and market risk appetite continues to be under pressure. This sentiment provided structural support for the safe-haven gold during the Asian session on Wednesday.
At the same time, because the two parties have not reached an agreement on the imminent expiration of Obamacare subsidies, this is related to whether the U.S. government can avoid another shutdown at the end of January 2026. For gold, it hedges the negative consequences of the end of the shutdown.
The U.S. dollar and gold are rising again
As a result of the release of inflation data from the European Eurozone and the United Kingdom, the overall CPI data has eased, and inflation concerns have been suspended. This has dispelled the willingness of some central banks to raise interest rates, and the domestic currency has weakened.
The U.S. dollar strengthened under this influence. At the same time, as gold and the global equity market have experienced a sell-off adjustment recently, risk assets and safe-haven assets are always lying. In the end, the safe-haven properties of gold became apparent, equity assets continued to adjust, and gold rebounded.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, geopolitical tensionsStrengthen risk aversion configuration
The Ukrainian military confirmed on Tuesday that it had used ATACMS missiles assisted by the United States to attack military targets in Russia. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, Ukrainian President Zelensky will visit Türkiye in an attempt to restart long-stalled peace negotiations with Russia.
US Special Envoy Steve Vitkov is expected to participate in the negotiations, but Kremlin spokesman Peskov has made it clear that the Russian delegation will not attend. The continued fermentation of geopolitical risks has further strengthened the demand for gold's safe-haven allocation.
Ukrainian President Zelensky: Anti-aircraft missiles, a new agreement to strengthen Ukraine’s air xmtraders.combat forces, support of at least 515 million euros and gas supply guarantees from Greece – these are the main results of this week’s visit to Greece, France and Spain.
But it is worth noting that sources said that U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has arrived in Ukraine and plans to meet with Russian representatives later. At the same time, a senior Ukrainian official said that Ukraine has received "signals" about a series of proposals discussed by the United States and Russia aimed at ending the conflict, but Ukraine did not participate in the preparation of the proposals.
Fed policy divergence, the US dollar held firm to limit gold gains
Although the marginal cooling of the Fed's dovish expectations pushed the U.S. dollar index to hold on to a one-week high, the U.S. dollar lacked sustained upward momentum and failed to attract large-scale follow-up buying. Recently, many Federal Reserve officials have spoken out intensively, sending cautious signals about further easing policy in December.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson emphasized at the beginning of this week that the central bank needs to advance policy adjustments at a "progressive" pace. Waller, the governor of the Federal Reserve, continues to build momentum for interest rate cuts. The core basis is the real pressure of a weak labor market and slowing recruitment activities.
Unemployment data hints that employment is under pressure, with non-farm payrolls and meeting minutes being key
The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that in the week ending October 18, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits (a key indicator reflecting the stability of the job market) climbed to 1.957 million. This data suggests that the U.S. unemployment rate may face upward pressure in October.
Based on this, the U.S. September non-farm payrolls report, which is delayed on Thursday, will become the focus of the market.
This report and the FOMC meeting minutes released later today form "dual guidance", which will directly reveal the true tendency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and have a decisive impact on the U.S. dollar index and the gold-dollar exchange rate.
Technical analysis:
The time-sharing chart shows that after the gold price fell, the measured decline was around 4028. After that, spot gold fell below 4028 to form a double bottom and bottom-breaking form, and then broke through continuously to launch a counterattack.
The pressure level is around 4135-4145, and the support level is around 4080.
The daily chart shows that gold holds the lower track of the Shengsheng channel and is expected to continue to rebound based on the upward channel. The pressure is at 4120 in the middle track and 4185 in the distance.
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