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Gold continues to hit new highs, Europe and the United States fluctuates at highs
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold continues to hit new highs, and Europe and the United States fluctuates at highs." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Macro
Recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has caused waves in the financial market, aggravating market uncertainty. Powell pointed out at the Chicago Economic Club on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth seems to be slowing down, high tariffs may lead to rising inflation and slowing growth, and the Federal Reserve will wait for more economic data to set interest rates to adjust. He denied the "Federal Bottom" and said the market was operating normally. But the speech did not appease the market, and the stock market was sold off instead, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.7%, the S&P 500 falling 2.2%, and the Nasdaq falling 3.1%. The foreign exchange and bond markets were also hit, with the US dollar falling close to its nearly three-year low, and U.S. bond yields fell for three consecutive days. Investors have poured into the safe-haven asset market due to concerns about the economy and inflation, and gold continues to strengthen. It has risen nearly $700 this year. After rising above $3,300, the trend is affected by psychological factors and is also facing the risk of selling caused by profit-taking and good news in trade. In addition, the ECB interest rate resolution will be held this trading day, and a number of important U.S. economic data will be released. Broker position adjustments may intensify volatility before Good Friday holidays. Overall, the market's concerns about the outlook for the US economy have deepened, and investors need to pay close attention to data and policies and make cautious decisions.
Dollar Index
In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend on Wednesday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 100.152 on the day, and fell to 99.145 at the lowest, and finally closed at 99.246. Looking back at the market performance on Wednesday, prices fell first under pressure during the early trading session, and then prices continued to be weak and ended with a big negative. From the weekly level, the price suppresses resistance in the 105 area, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more inclined toShort sellers. At the daily level, the price is suppressed at the resistance level of the 101.80 area, so the short position is based on the band's thinking. The 99.70 area in the short term is the short-term watershed of the US index, and the price is below the multi-cycle resistance, but the price rebounds in the short term for four hours and one hour, so be cautious and focus on the gains and losses of the four-hour resistance. Once it breaks, you need to pay attention to further continuation.
The US Index focused on the gains and losses of the 99.70 watershed
Gold
In terms of gold, gold prices generally showed an upward trend on Wednesday, with the price rising to the highest point of 3342.77 on the day, falling to the lowest point of 3229.77 and closing at 3342.76. In response to the price continued to rise during the early trading session on Wednesday, the European session continued further, while the US and overnight rose again and hit a new high, and closed at the highest level. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 2960 area. So from a mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. From the daily level, the current price is supported by the 3150 region, and it continues to be bullish from the perspective of the band. For the short-term four-hour price is supported at the 3288 position, the price is still relatively large in the short term. The short-term one-hour price fell again after rising in the morning of today's trading, so the price broke the recent strong performance. At present, we should pay attention to the price retracement first, and wait until the subsequent retracement is near the four-hour support area before looking for further upward. Focus on the 3375-3420 area above.
Gold has a long range of 3294-95, with a defense of 10 US dollars, and a target of 3330-3375-3420
European and the United States
European and the United States, the prices in Europe and the United States were generally on Tuesday. The price fell to 1.1279 on the day and rose to 1.1412 on the spot and closed at 1.1397 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Wednesday, the opening price in the morning first received support and further rises, and then broke through the four-hour resistance position as scheduled. The European and US market fluctuated at high levels after the session, and the daily line ended with a big positive. From the perspective of monthly line level, Europe and the United States are supported at 1.0770, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.0730 area, and continue to look bullish from the perspective of the midline. From the daily level, the price is supported by the 1.0890 region, so the band is treated with the same bullish idea. From the short-term four-hour level, the current position of 1.1330-1.1340 is the key resistance position. The price fluctuates in the four hours to the 1.1245-1.1470 range, and the middle 11330-40 range is the watershed of short-term oscillation. The price will be further under pressure in one hour.Therefore, we will continue to fluctuate at a high level for the time being, and then follow further after the range is broken.
Europe and the United States fluctuate in the range of 1.1245-1.1470, with four hours of 1.1330-40 as the watershed between strength and weakness
[Finance data and events that are focused today] Thursday, April 17, 2025
①To be determined Domestic refined oils open a new round of price adjustment window
②09:00 China's March Swift RMB accounts for global payments
③09:30 Australia's March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
④14:00 Germany's March PPI monthly rate
⑤14:00 Switzerland's March trade account
⑥20:15 European Central Bank announces interest rate resolution
⑦20:30 United States to April 12 Number of people who requested unemployment benefits in the week
⑧20:30 Total number of new homes started in the United States in March
⑨20:30 Total number of construction permits in the United States in March
⑩20:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April
20:45 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde held a press conference
22:30 US to April 11 EIA natural gas inventory
23:45 Fed Director Barr delivered a speech
01:00 the next day to the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to April 18
Note: The above is only personal opinions and strategies, for review and exchange only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and is not used as a basis for orders.
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