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market analysis
【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Expectations Favor Turkish Central Bank Holding Interest Rates Unchanged
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: Expectations Favor Turkish Central Bank Holding Interest Rates Unchanged". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
This chart produced by the TradingView platform.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 38.05.
- Set a stop-loss order below 37.85.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 40.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 40.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 41.50.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 37.15.
Turkish Lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY exchange rate recorded slight increases at the start of European trading. The pair has seen a shift over the past two weeks of trading from slightly below the 38 lira level to settle above that exact figure, although all changes have been within a limited range. Pressure on the Turkish currency is expanding with increasing demand for foreign currencies, especially from citizens seeking to preserve the value of their savings from the expected decline in the lira's value. The dollar price recorded 38.18 lira this morning, while markets await the anticipated interest rate decision today.
Most expectations indicate that the Turkish Central Bank will hold the interest rate unchanged at 42.5%, after a series of interest rate cuts over the meetings held since December of last year. Analysts rule out any possibility of continuing to cut rates given the pressures the Turkish currency has been experiencing for nearly five weeks following market turmoil after the arrest of the Mayor of Istanbul, which cost the country about $50 billion in reserves. Any deviation from expectations of holding the rate steady could cause sharp movements in the lira's exchange rate, as well as the stock market, which the monetary authorities in the country do not want at a time when they are trying to bring some stability to the markets.
This is especially true given the insistence of Turkish officials, led by the Minister of Treasury and Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank, that the repercussions of the March events that caused market turmoil are "temporary," stressing that the situation does not warrant radical changes in monetary policy, but rather requires continuing a cautious policy to ensure economic stability.
On the other hand, some suggestions have emerged that include the possibility of raising the interest rate to levels of 46%, which is a relatively weak expectation given the decline in inflation rates during last March, which reached 38%, while the Central Bank aims to reduce it to 24% by the end of the year.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair maintained its slight gains with the price stabilizing near the upper limit of the rectangle that supports the sideways movement of the price. At the same time, the pair maintained its movements around the 50-moving average on the four-hour timeframe, indicating stability in the medium term. Turkish lira price forecasts indicate a continued rise in the dollar in the medium term, targeting levels of 42 lira in the medium term.
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