Oil prices are helped by multiple positive effects, rising nearly 3%. Investors settle profits before the holiday, gold prices are temporarily suspended

Basic news

On Friday (April 18 Beijing time), gold prices fell on Thursday as investors took profits before the holiday, but weak dollar and escalating trade tensions kept gold above $3,300 per ounce; oil prices closed higher by more than 3% on Thursday, helped by hopes of a trade deal between the United States and the EU and the new sanctions imposed by the United States to curb Iran's oil exports continue to intensify supply concerns.

Stock Market

U.S. Wall Street stocks rose and fell on Thursday, with Eli Lilly and Apple bringing a boost, and investors assessed the progress of U.S. trade negotiations with Japan and concerns about interest rate outlook. Traders are becoming optimistic, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying "significant progress" in bilateral dialogue after a sharp decline in stock markets on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 narrowed its gains in the last few minutes before closing, and the Nasdaq turned to a decline, suggesting traders are cautious about holding U.S. stocks over the long weekend, and the market will be closed on Friday on Good Friday.

Eli Lilly rose 14%, after the drugmaker said its experimental tablets were no less effective than Ozempic in trials with diabetes. Apple rose 1.4%, recovering from its recent big drop.

United Health Group, a 22% drop, dragging down the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the xmtraders.company lowered its annual profit expectations due to high medical costs for the rest of the year.

Other health insurance xmtraders.companies also fell, with CVSHealth down nearly 2%, and Humana down 7.4%.

The S&P 500 rose 0.13%, closing at 5282.70 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.13% to 16,286.45 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.33% to 39,142.23 points.

xmtraders.compared with the abnormally high trading volume in recent trading days, the trading volume on Thursday was relatively light, with a total of 14.6 billion shares sold on various U.S. exchanges, xmtraders.compared with the average daily trading volume in the previous 20 trading days being 19.2 billion shares.

Eight of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the energy sector leading the rise, with an increase of 2.3%, followed by the major consumer goods sector, with an increase of 2.2%. This week, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and the Dow fell 2.7%. The S&P 500 has fallen about 7% since Trump announced the full imposition of global tariffs on April 2.

Trump said on Thursday that the firing of Powell is "as soon as possible", while calling on the Fed to cut interest rates. Investors are now focusing on consultations with dozens of countries in the xmtraders.coming weeks to further understand the scale and scope of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various countries and industries.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders believe the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in May has dropped to around 6%. A Reuters survey shows that economists believe the possibility of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months has increased.

Longbow AssetManagement CEO Jake Dollarhide said, "The market wants Trump to announce a trade deal, and the market wants real results, which the market has not obtained."

U.S. stocks will be closed on Friday, with the three major Wall Street indexes recording their third weekly decline in four weeks.

Gold market

Gold prices fell Thursday after a sharp rise in the previous trading day as investors took profits before a long weekend, but weakening of the dollar and escalating trade tensions kept the price above $3,300 per ounce. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3317.87 an ounce, hitting an all-time high of $3357.40 during the session. Gold prices rose more than 2% this week. The settlement price of U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $3,328.40.

Marex analyst Edward Meir said: "I think (gold) is quite overbought, and the market has seen some profit-taking, but gold will face a buy when it plummets, because the outlook for 2025 remains very uncertain."

Gold prices soared 3.6% on Wednesday, helped by President Trump's orders to investigate all key mineral imports, which have been ordered to investigate drug and chip imports, which may lead to the U.S. tariffs on these industries.

The US dollar index rebounded, but it will fall this week. The weakening of the dollar makes gold cheaper for other currencies.

Consulting firm MetalsFocus said we are still optimistic about gold. However, gold prices mayA pullback occurs because short-term investors may take profits or may trigger additional margin notices due to a new round of stock market crash.

Spot silver fell 0.9% to $32.44 per ounce, platinum remained steady at $967.08, and palladium fell 1.5% to $956.92. Oil market

Oil prices closed higher by more than 3% on Thursday, helped by hopes of a trade deal between the United States and the EU and new sanctions imposed by the U.S. to curb Iran's oil exports continue to intensify supply concerns.

Brent crude oil futures closed higher at $2.11 to $67.96 per barrel; U.S. crude oil closed up $2.21 to $64.68 per barrel.

Brent crude and U.S. crude both rose about 5% this week, the first single-week gain in three weeks. Thursday is the last settlement day of the week before the Easter holiday, and trading volume is relatively scarce.

U.S. President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Meloni expressed optimism about resolving trade tensions that have strained U.S.-EU relations. "We don't have much problem reaching an agreement with Europe or anyone else because we have what everyone wants," Trump said. Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Ruisui Bank, said a trade deal with the EU could limit the damage to demand by Trump's tariffs.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday it had received the latest plans for further production cuts from Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries to make up for production exceeding the quota.

However, OPEC, the International Energy Agency, and several banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, all lowered their expectations for oil prices and demand growth this week as U.S. tariffs and retaliation from other countries put global trade into chaos.

Foreign exchange market

The US dollar rose on Thursday, and the weakening momentum against other major currencies in recent times seems to be temporarily on the rise. The euro weakened slightly as the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year.

The dollar basically stabilized this week, and remained in a narrow range against the euro. The dollar fell sharply last week on concerns about the impact of tariffs on the economy and investors shifted their investment overseas.

Eric Theoret, a foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank, said that most G10 currencies have experienced quite strong uptrends in recent times, so I think we are just in a brief pause phase now, and our medium-term view is still bearish on the dollar, so we think it is just a consolidation phase.

Traders are closely watching discussions between the Trump administration and trading partners for signs of a deal that could provide clear basis for the Trump administration’s goals.

Trump said Thursday that he expected a trade deal with China, but he did not provide specific details or signs of how the negotiations would go. Trump also claimed on Wednesday that tariff negotiations with Japan have made "significant progress".

The ECB cut interest rates to 20 on ThursdayThe lowest level since the end of 22 years is hoped to support the eurozone economy, which is already in trouble and will be hit hard by US tariffs.

Dansker Bank foreign exchange analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen said: "The ECB's statement is dovish. The focus has turned toward the downside risks of growth prospects, rather than the upside risks of inflation."

Feder Chairman Powell said Wednesday that the Fed will wait for more data on the direction of the economy before deciding whether and how to adjust interest rates, but warned that Trump's tariff policy could further deviate inflation and employment from the Fed's target. Trump responded on Thursday that Powell's step down "the faster the better", and called on the Fed to cut interest rates.

Data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week, indicating that labor market conditions remained stable in April.

The euro fell 0.41% against the dollar late in trading to $1.1351, still below the three-year high of $1.1473 hit last Friday. The dollar rose 0.51% against the yen to 142.54 yen, after hitting its lowest since September 18 last year.

The market trading has decreased, and most U.S. markets will be closed on Friday due to the Good Friday holiday, but the foreign exchange market will continue to trade. The US dollar rose 0.97% against the Swiss franc to 0.821 Swiss francs.

At the same time, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.59% against the US dollar to US$0.5968, and data showed that New Zealand's first-quarter consumer price increase exceeded expectations. The New York dollar hit $0.5975 earlier, its highest level since November 11. The Australian dollar rose 0.24% to $0.6385. Data showed that Australia's employment rate rebounded in March, with the pound rising 0.1% to $1.3253 on Thursday after hitting its highest since October 2.

International News

Trump has reportedly discussed with advisers to fire Powell, but Treasury Secretary Bescent believes the move is not worth the cost

It is reported that Trump has discussed with several senior advisers that the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The media reported on Thursday that Trump had exchanged views with former Federal Reserve Director Kevin Warsh on the early removal of Powell. Powell's current term will end in 2026. Warsh told Trump that Powell should be allowed to xmtraders.complete his term without interruption. The report also said that Treasury Secretary Becent opposed Trump's adviser's idea of ​​seeking to remove Powell, believing that the move would not be worth the cost.

Rubio said the United States has proposed a "framework for lasting peace" to all parties

On the 17th local time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov spoke on the phone with US Secretary of State Rubio. According to the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Rubio, who is visiting Paris, informed Lavrov of himself and the US Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov, Ukraine and France.communication between representatives of other European countries. The relevant xmtraders.communication mainly involves the themes of bilateral consultations between the United States and Russia, including the topics of Russian President Putin and Witkov's conversation in St. Petersburg not long ago. Lavrov said that Russia will continue to work with the United States to effectively eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis. The two sides also agreed that Russia and the United States will maintain contact against the backdrop of a series of meetings between the United States and European countries and Ukraine next week. The U.S. State Department statement said Rubio conveyed to Lavrov that the United States has proposed a "framework for lasting peace" to all parties. The statement said that peace is possible as long as the parties are xmtraders.committed to reaching an agreement.

Trump said he believed Powell would leave at his request

U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that he believed that if Fed Chairman Powell was asked to leave, he would leave, although Powell himself said he would not leave even if the president asked him to leave. Trump told reporters that he was not satisfied with Powell, saying he was "too late" to take action. Powell has repeatedly stated that he intends to fill the remaining presidential term that expires in May 2026, and he also said he will refuse to leave if Trump requests.

Trump has privately discussed firing Powell and allowing former Fed Director Wash to take over

According to people familiar with the matter, President Trump has been privately discussing firing Fed Chairman Powell for months, but he has not made a final decision on whether to oust him before the end of his term next year. At a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Trump discussed with former Fed director Kevin Warsh about the possibility of sacking Powell before the end of his term and possibly choosing Wash to take over his position, but Wash advised not to fire Fed Chairman Powell and believed he should be allowed to end his term without intervention, people familiar with the matter said. US Treasury Secretary Bescent also opposed Trump's intention to remove Powell.

Bank of Japan Governor: US tariff policy will impact the Japanese economy

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on the 17th that US tariff policy will impact the Japanese economy and may have a negative impact on the international financial capital market. Kazuo Ueda said that in addition to directly affecting trade activities, the U.S. tariff policy has also led to an increase in uncertainty and has an impact on confidence in businesses and families. He believes that the US tariff policy will put downward pressure on the Japanese economy. He said that it is now necessary to judge the impact of tariffs on the economic and price outlook without presets, and to make prudent decisions on this basis.

Trump: The United States will sign a mineral agreement with Ukraine next Thursday

U.S. President Trump said that the United States and Ukraine will sign a key mineral agreement next Thursday. "We have a mineral agreement, which I think will be signed on Thursday. I also think they will implement it." This statement suggests that Washington and Kiev have a box of agreements on the post-war development of Ukrainian mineral resources and rebuilding infrastructurereached a consensus.

U.S. mortgage rates hit the largest increase in a year. Spring housing sales may be under pressure.

U.S. mortgage rates rose for the first time in four weeks, marking the largest single-week increase since April 2024. Freddie Mac said in a statement that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.83%, up from 6.62% last week. As wider economic uncertainty puts pressure on homebuyers, rising interest rates could curb sales in the usually busy spring market. The tariff dispute disrupted the stock market and pushed up the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which serves as the benchmark for mortgage interest rates. "When it goes up, mortgage rates often follow suit," said Realtor economist Jiayi Xu. “Looking forward, multiple economic forces are pulling mortgage rates in the opposite direction, making it increasingly difficult to predict their direction.” Demand has begun to slow. According to Redfin, the number of contracts fell by 0.8% year-on-year in the four weeks ended April 13.

The United States announced measures to boost the local shipbuilding industry, intending to charge for automobile transportation.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced measures to boost the local shipbuilding industry on the 17th local time. Some measures include that in order to encourage U.S.-built cargo ships, foreign-built cargo ships will be charged a fee based on their capacity after 180 days, starting at $150 per vehicle (CEU). To encourage LNG transporters made in the United States, foreign ships transporting LNG will face limited restrictions in three years, which will gradually increase over 22 years. There is no charge for dry bulk carriers that are ready for export of US goods at no charge. All parties must submit feedback on the proposed measures by May 19.

Domestic News

The total dividends of listed xmtraders.companies in the 2024 annual report exceed 1.1 trillion yuan

The disclosure of 2024 annual report has entered its peak period, and the annual dividend plans for listed xmtraders.companies have been released one after another. As of April 17, the latest total dividends have exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan. Shareholders of many other xmtraders.companies have suggested implementing dividends and actively rewarding investors. Analysts said that with the launch of the new "Nine National Regulations", A-shares' attractiveness to long-term funds has gradually increased, and dividend assets after the annual report are worth paying attention to.

Li Qiang: We must grasp the strength of policies, dare to break the rules when necessary, and launch a "combination punch"

The State Council conducts the thirteenth special study with the theme of "strengthening expectations management, collaboratively promoting policy implementation and expectations guidance". Premier Li Qiang pointed out that the management of expectations is highly xmtraders.comprehensive, and we must have a sense of stabilizing expectations in all aspects of policy formulation and implementation and government work, especially in xmtraders.combination with changes in the situation, and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policies. We must find the right policy priorities, be good at grasping the problem of the role of a weather vane, prescribe the right medicine, implement policies in a concentrated manner, and promptly introduce powerful and effective policy measures. We must pay attention to policy timing and promote the early and quick action of all policies and measures in various aspects at some critical time windows.Expect a positive impact. We must grasp the strength of the policy, dare to break the rules when necessary, and launch a "combination punch" to make the market truly feel a sense of gain. We must strengthen policy publicity and interpretation, provide active and precise delivery of policies, strengthen interactive xmtraders.communication with the market, so that the market can fully understand and make good use of policies, and make policies truly benefit the people and enterprises.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Oil prices are helped by multiple positive news, with nearly 3% rises. Investors take profits before the holiday, and gold price rises temporarily" is carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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