U.S.-Iran negotiations eased, oil prices fell, dollar hit three-year low Trump says "golden to set rules"

Basic news

On Monday (April 21, Beijing time), spot gold rose, trading around 3347.12, and the market risk aversion increased. US President Trump said on social platforms, "The golden rule of negotiation and success: those who own gold make rules" is expected to hit a new historical high again. The US dollar fell below the 99 mark in the early trading, hitting a low of 98.88, a new low since April 2022. US crude oil fell by more than 1%, and trading around 63.18 US dollars per barrel. Progress in nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran over the weekend eased supply concerns.

Stock Market

Most markets closed last Friday due to the Good Friday holiday, trading was light, U.S. stocks rose and fell on Thursday, with Eli Lilly and Apple boosting, and investors assessed the progress of U.S. trade negotiations with Japan and concerns about interest rate outlook.

Traders are becoming optimistic, with U.S. President Trump saying bilateral dialogue has made "significant progress" after stock markets plummeted on Wednesday. The S&P 500 narrowed its gains in the last few minutes before closing, and the Nasdaq turned down, suggesting traders were cautious about holding U.S. stocks over the long weekend and the market will be closed on Friday on Good Friday. Eli Lilly rose 14%, after the drugmaker said its experimental tablets were no less effective than Ozempic in trials with diabetes.

Apple rose 1.4%, recovering from its recent big drop. United Health Group, a 22% drop, dragging down the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, downgraded its annual profit forecast as it expects high medical costs for the rest of the year.

The S&P 500 rose 0.13%, closed at 5282.70 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.13% to 16,286.45 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.33% to 39,142.23 points. xmtraders.compared with the abnormally high trading volume in recent trading days, the trading volume on Thursday was relatively light, with a total of 14.6 billion shares sold on various U.S. exchanges, xmtraders.compared with the average daily trading volume in the previous 20 trading days of 19.2 billion shares.

Eight of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the energy sector leading the rise, with an increase of 2.3%, followed by the major consumer goods sector, with an increase of 2.2%. This week, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and the Dow fell 2.7%. The S&P 500 has fallen about 7% since Trump announced the full imposition of global tariffs on April 2. Trump said on Thursday that the firing of Powell is "as soon as possible", while calling for the Fed to cut interest rates.

Investors are now focusing on consultations with dozens of countries in the xmtraders.coming weeks to further understand the scale and scope of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various countries and industries.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders believe the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in May has dropped to around 6%. A Reuters survey shows that economists believe the possibility of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months has increased.

LongbowAssetManagement CEO Jake Dollarhide said, "The market wants Trump to announce a trade deal, and the market wants real results, which the market has not obtained." All three major Wall Street stock indexes recorded their third weekly decline in four weeks.

Gold market

On Monday, spot gold rose, trading around 3347.12, market risk aversion increased. US President Trump said on social platforms, "The golden rule of negotiation and success: those who own gold make rules", and gold prices are expected to hit a new historical high again; gold prices fell last Thursday as investors took profits before the long weekend, but the weakening of the dollar and the escalating trade tensions kept the gold price above $3,300 per ounce. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3317.87 an ounce, hitting an all-time high of $3357.40 during the session. Gold prices rose more than 2% last week.

Marex analyst Edward Meir said: "I think (gold) is quite overbought, and the market has seen some profit-taking... But when gold falls sharply, there will be a takeover buying, because the outlook for 2025 is still very uncertain."

On Friday, the market was circulating that Trump's tariff attitude was eased, but consulting firm MetalsFocus said we are still optimistic about gold. However, gold prices may pull back in the short term, as short-term investors may take profits, or may trigger margin notices due to a new round of stock market crash.

Spot silver fell 0.9% to $32.44 per ounce, platinum remained steady at $967.08, and palladium fell 1.5%, to $956.92.

Oil market

U.S. crude oil fell more than 1% at the beginning of Monday's session, trading around $63.18 per barrel. Progress in nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran over the weekend eased supply concerns. Oil prices closed higher by more than 3% on Thursday, supported by hopes of a trade deal between the United States and the EU and new U.S. sanctions imposed to curb Iran's oil exports continue to intensify supply concerns.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 3.2% to $67.96 a barrel; U.S. crude oil closed up 3.54% to $64.68 a barrel. Last week, Brent and U.S. crude oil rose about 5%, the first single-week gain in three weeks. Thursday is the last settlement day of the week before the Easter holiday, and trading volume is relatively scarce.

U.S. President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Meloni expressed optimism about resolving trade tensions that have strained U.S.-EU relations.

Trump said: "We don't have much problem reaching an agreement with Europe or anyone else because we have what everyone wants." Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Ruisui Bank, said a trade deal with the EU could limit the damage to demand by Trump's tariffs.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said last Wednesday that it had received the latest plans for further production cuts from Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries to make up for production exceeding the quota. However, OPEC, the International Energy Agency, and several banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase all lowered their expectations for oil prices and demand growth last week as U.S. tariffs and retaliation from other countries put global trade into chaos.

Over the weekend, Iran and the United States held a second round of nuclear negotiations in Rome. It is reported that, like the first round of negotiations, this round of negotiations will still adopt indirect negotiations. Omani Foreign Minister will act as the middle party to convey information between Iran and the United States negotiating teams. According to CCTV, the Kremlin, Russian President Putin said that Russia will stop all military operations from 18:00 on April 19 to 0:00 on April 21.

Foreign Market

The US dollar fell below the 99 mark in early Monday, reaching a low of 98.88, a new low since April 2022; due to the Easter holiday last week, although the foreign exchange market was still trading by Friday, the trading volume was light, and the US dollar was still in a weak situation last week. After falling below the 100 mark, it repeatedly tested and returned to above the 100 mark last week, but the pressure was high. The trade war caused the confidence of the US dollar to be regarded as a safe-haven asset to continue to lose. However, the decline slope of the US dollar converged last week, and rebounded slightly as the weekend approached, showing a deep rebound.

National Economic xmtraders.commission Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that President Trump and his team are continuing to study whether they can fire Fed Chairman Powell. Such moves have a significant impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve and global markets. "The president and his team will continue to study the matter," Hassett said at the White House when a reporter asked "the firing of Powell isNo is an option.

The long-standing grudges between Trump and Powell were intensified the day after Hassett's remarks, accusing Powell of not cutting interest rates as "playing with politics" and claiming he has the right to "quickly" dismiss Powell. "If we have a Fed chairman who understands what we are doing, interest rates will drop," Trump told reporters at an Oval Office event last Friday. He should lower the interest rate. "Powell has said that the law does not allow him to be removed, and he will not leave even if Trump asks him to leave, and he plans to work until the end of his term of chairman in May 2026. Powell's term as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors will be extended to January 2028.

Last week, senior officials from Europe and Japan held talks with the United States. In terms of talks with Japan, the market originally expected that the Japanese yen exchange rate would become one of the directions of pressure on the US side, causing the US dollar to fall to a seven-and-a-half-month low. However, Japanese negotiator Ryo Akazawa was xmtraders.coming to clarify that the trade negotiations did not discuss exchange rate issues, which led to the US dollar rebounding from a low of nearly 1 yen . Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that if potential inflation accelerates to approach the 2% target as scheduled, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates.

In terms of European and American consultations, EU trade executive Shevjovich said after meeting with U.S. xmtraders.commerce Secretary Lutnik and Trade Representative Greer in Washington that the EU is seeking to reach a fair tariff agreement with the United States, which requires joint efforts between the two sides.

The Italian Prime Minister Meloni, who visited the United States last week, said with Trump that he believed that the United States and Europe can reach a trade agreement before the end of the 90-day moratorium on some tariffs. In terms of UK-US negotiations, US Vice President Vance claimed in an interview with the media that the British and American governments are In close cooperation, and Trump’s love for the UK and its royal family will help to reach a “great deal.”

The euro closed up at 1.1389 against the dollar last Friday, the ECB announced last week that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the seventh cut in a year and has cut borrowing costs to its lowest level since the end of 2022. The yield, which is very sensitive to ECB rate expectations, fell to 1.671% from about 1.81% before the resolution was announced. The yield fell by 8 basis points late in trading, near its lowest point since the end of 2022.

The pound hit last week against the dollar last week The latest PMIs in the country may show that the latest trading war will have an initial impact on business operations and consumer confidence. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, and the IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting will be the venue for major countries to discuss the latest economic situation. The talks between major financial giants are expected to become the focus of the financial markets by then.Where, in addition, the Federal Reserve's Economic Beige Book also needs attention.

International News

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 10 years to rebuild the xmtraders.complete rare earth supply chain and $300 billion investment

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 10 years to rebuild the xmtraders.complete rare earth supply chain and $300 billion investment, while existing inventory can only maintain military production for 18 months. Even if deep-sea mining (such as the Pacific Polymetallic Nodule Program), it will take at least five years from exploration to mass production, and it will face international law and environmental disputes.

More than three-quarters of researchers in the United States are considering leaving the United States, with Europe and Canada being their preferred destinations

The U.S. government recently announced that it would freeze multi-year grants to the school totaling $2.2 billion because Harvard University rejected its request for major reforms to the school's management structure. Since the beginning of this year, the US government has threatened to cut funds from many universities for similar reasons, which has impacted scientific research talents in the United States. According to Western media reports, in the face of the uncertain policy environment of the Trump administration, more and more scientific researchers are considering leaving the United States. Meanwhile, some countries are taking advantage of this opportunity to attract new talent from the United States. A survey released by Nature magazine in late March showed that more than three-quarters of more than 1,600 U.S. researchers involved in the survey said they were considering leaving the United States, with Europe and Canada being their preferred destinations.

The U.S. Department of Defense investigates information leakage. Four trusted officials of the Defense Minister were dismissed.

The U.S. Department of Defense expanded its investigation into the leakage of sensitive or confidential information. In the past week, four people have been dismissed from the "core circle" of Defense Secretary Peter Hegsey, including his senior adviser Dan Caldwell. On the 19th, Caldwell and others issued a joint statement denied the disclosure of sensitive or confidential information, claiming that they had been falsely slandered and attacked. Four officials who have been removed from the U.S. Department of Defense information leak investigation are Caldwell, Colin Carroll, the office director of the Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg, Darling Selnik, the deputy director of the General Office of the Department of Defense, and John Uliott, the spokesman for the Department of Defense. Caldwell, Carroll and Selnick issued a joint statement on the 19th, saying that they were falsely slandered and attacked by other officials of the Ministry of Defense, and they were "deeply disappointed" with the way they ended their work in the Ministry of Defense.

Trump "his own people" can't sit still, secretly hopes that the US Supreme Court will stop the tariff war

The trade war initiated by Trump has become an increasingly political burden for the Republican Party. According to the US Capitol Hill newspaper, Republican lawmakers who privately oppose tariffs but dare not publicly criticize the president secretly hope that the US Supreme Court will take action and stop the tariff war. The article said that Republican strategist and former Republican aide to the Senate, Brian Darling, bluntly stated that "Parliamentarians are not good for public opposition to the president because the cost is too high. So they wish the Supreme Court would intervene and uphold the tax rights granted to the House of Representatives by the Constitution." He said that the polls show that the tariff policy is unpopular and if it continues for a long time, it may ruin the re-election of these members. Even Trump's hardcore allies,Senator Ted Cruz of Texas also said that "tariffs are equivalent to increasing taxes relative to millions of American consumers", and he disagrees with this approach.

Dissatisfied with the government's recent policies and protests were held in many places in the United States

Protests were held in many places in the United States on the 19th. People from the capital Washington, New York, San Francisco, Boston and other cities took to the streets to protest the current government's policies on large-scale layoffs, tariffs, and deportation of immigration. At the doorstep of the White House in Washington, protesters expressed their dissatisfaction with various placards such as "Stop illegal expulsion", "Workers, not the rich have power", and "The constitutional crisis has arrived". Frank, who works for a nonprofit in Washington, said the current government cancels student visas, deports immigrants and drives them out of the United States without any trial, which is contrary to due legal proceedings. In Denver, Colorado, Portland, Oregon, Anchorage, Alaska and other places, hundreds to thousands of protesters held various slogans to express their dissatisfaction with the government's policies such as deportation of immigrants and massive layoffs.

Japan ruled out the possibility of using US debt as a bargaining chip

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Sunday that Japan will emphasize "fairness" in any discussion with the United States on exchange rate issues. Some analysts say Japan can use its holdings of more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds as trade leverage, but Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato ruled out the possibility of using it as a bargaining chip this month. When asked whether Japan would mention its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds during negotiations, Shigeru Ishiba said: "This is based on the trust of both sides, global economic stability and economic stability between the two countries."

The survey showed that Trump's approval rating on economic issues fell to the lowest level in his presidential career

On April 19, local time, according to the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC), xmtraders.comBC's latest national economic survey showed that due to widespread dissatisfaction with the handling of tariffs, inflation and government spending, his approval rating on economic issues hit a new low. It is reported that 49% of respondents believe that the US economy will deteriorate in the next year. The survey found that 44% of respondents recognized Trump's handling, while 51% expressed opposition. On economic issues, Trump has a 43% approval rating and a 55% opposition.

More American wealthy people open Swiss bank accounts due to concerns about U.S. risks

According to investors and banks, more and more American wealthy people are opening bank accounts in Switzerland as part of their portfolio “de-Americanization.” Swiss Bank said interest and business of high-net-worth Americans opening investment accounts has surged in recent months. Gabris, CEO of Swiss Financial Consulting, said that different clients have different motivations to open accounts. Many people want to get rid of the dollar, and they believe the dollar will weaken further under the weight of soaring U.S. debt. Switzerland's neutral politics, stable economy, strong currency and reliable legal system are all attractive. Some people are politically motivated, and what they believe is the recession of the rule of law in the United States under the Trump administration. There are also some who open Swiss accounts to buy physical gold in Switzerland, which is known for its gold storage and refineries.

"30 hours are not enough" Zelensky suggested extending the ceasefire to 30 days

Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media on the 19th local time that Russia has not responded to the proposal of a 30-day unconditional ceasefire for 39 days. If Russia suddenly expresses its willingness to join the framework of a xmtraders.comprehensive unconditional ceasefire, Ukraine will take a reciprocal response - how Russia acts, and how Ukraine will respond. If a full ceasefire is truly achieved, Ukraine proposes to extend the ceasefire period until after Easter, April 20. This will test Russia's true intentions, because 30 hours are not enough to build real trust measures, and 30 days may create opportunities for peace.

Trump is studying whether to fire Fed Chairman Powell

National Economic xmtraders.commission Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that President Trump and his team are continuing to study whether they can fire Fed Chairman Powell. Such moves have a significant impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve and global markets. "The president and his team will continue to look into the matter," Hassett said at the White House when a reporter asked "whether the fire of Powell was an option." The day before Hassett made the remarks, Trump's long-standing grudges with Powell intensified, accusing Powell of not cutting interest rates was "playing with politics" and claiming that he has the right to "quickly" dismiss Powell. "If we have a Fed chairman who understands what we are doing, interest rates will drop. He should lower interest rates." Powell once said that the law does not allow him to be removed, and he will not leave even if Trump asks him to leave, and he plans to continue until the end of his chairmanship term in May 2026. Powell's term as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors will be extended until January 2028.

Domestic News

The latest report predicts: New agricultural quality productivity will usher in a systematic breakthrough. my country's food security capacity will be improved in all aspects.

On the morning of the 20th, the Market Early Warning Expert xmtraders.committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2025-2034)", which predicted and looked forward to the supply and demand situation of my country's major agricultural products market in the next 10 years. The report predicts that in the next 10 years, the productivity of new agricultural quality will usher in a systematic breakthrough, and the supply guarantee capacity of grain and important agricultural products will achieve a xmtraders.comprehensive improvement in quantity and quality.

In the first quarter of this year, the survey results of the first quarter of 2025 of my country's consumer consumption intention jointly organized by the China Association of Small and Medium Business Enterprises and the Lixin Data Research Institute were released. The survey results show that against the backdrop of the decline in China's consumer willingness index for three consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2024, the first quarter of 2025The consumption intention index shows signs of stabilization and recovery. The survey results show that the consumption intention index in the first quarter of 2025 was 121.5, which is higher than the critical value of 100. xmtraders.compared with the previous quarter, the consumption willingness index rose by 2.1 points; the spot consumption willingness index, which represents the current consumption willingness, was 112.4, an increase of 2.1 points; the expected consumption willingness index, which represents the future consumption willingness, was 130.5, an increase of 2.1 points. xmtraders.compared with the same period last year, the consumption willingness index fell by 11.8 points; the spot consumption willingness index fell by 5.3 points; the expected consumption willingness index fell by 18.4 points.

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