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Four-hour support becomes a springboard for gold soaring, and Europe and the United States break the upper edge of the volatility
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Four-hour support becomes a springboard for gold soaring, and Europe and the United States break the upper edge of the volatility." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Macro
Recently, the situation in the domestic political and economic fields of the United States has been xmtraders.complicated. In monetary policy, Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell for demanding interest rate cuts and wanted to dismiss him. Powell emphasized that the Fed made independent decisions and said that it would not cut interest rates or stop reducing balance sheets for the time being. Director Waller believes that tariffs may have a temporary impact on inflation and the degree of easing will be determined based on the economic situation. In terms of trade policy, the United States continues to increase its efforts in global trade, such as evaluating taxes such as semiconductors and investigating imports of key minerals. Differences in trade negotiations between the United States, Europe and the United States and Japan remain, and the United States and Ukraine signed a memorandum of intention to cooperate in minerals to promote the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Internationally, Canada supports its own xmtraders.companies in response to the tariff dispute between Canada and the United States, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the seventh time to deal with the economic downturn. Iran and the United States will hold a second round of nuclear plan and sanctions negotiations, and the two sides have great differences. Looking at the future market, the US dollar will continue to fluctuate due to inflation and tariffs. This week's PMI data and speeches by Fed officials have attracted attention, and the impact of tariffs on the euro zone may appear. Although tariffs are temporarily curbing market sentiment, optimism may weaken in the future. In addition, Trump and Powell's dispute continues.
Dollar Index
In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend last Friday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 99.442 on the day, and fell to 99.182 at the lowest, and finally closed at 99.214. Looking back at the market performance last Friday, the price fell first during the early trading session, and then continued to be suppressed below the four-hour resistance, and it continued to be bearish in the short term. In the end, both the daily and weekly lines ended with a big negative end, and continued to pay attention to further pressure.
From the multi-period analysis, weekly levelThe price suppresses resistance in the 105 area, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the price is suppressed at the resistance level of the 101.80 area, so the short position is based on the band's thinking. The 99.20-30 area in the short term is a short-term watershed by the US index, so the short-term price is still bearish. Based on the multi-cycle view, the price is below the multi-cycle resistance, and the market will continue to be treated at high altitudes in the future. In the short term, we will temporarily pay attention to the pressure in the 99.20-30 area, and follow the support in the 97.70 area below.
The US dollar index was short in the range of 99.20-99.30, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 98.50-97.70
Gold
In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a decline last Thursday. The price rose to the highest point of 3245 on the day, and the lowest point of 3176.01, closing at 3237.74. In view of the price continuing to rise during the early trading session last Thursday, but the continuity was poor afterwards, and the price fell below the early trading low. As the author said, the four-hour support was tested, and the rise was stopped again after testing it to the four-hour support, and the negative line finally ended. However, the overall weekly line still ended.
From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four months and has seen a single-month correction. Therefore, according to the rhythm, the overall bullish look in April, but for May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3006 area. So from a mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. From the daily level, the current price is supported by the 3167 regional support, and it continues to be bullish from the perspective of the band. For the short-term four-hour price is supported at the 3310 position, the price is still relatively large in the short term. The short-term price surged again in the morning session today, and the low point of today's morning session became a key watershed. We will pay attention to the 3340 area to continue to support the price increase, and the 3400-3420-3450 area above.
Gold has a long range of 3339-3340, defense is 3325, target is 3400-3420-3450
European and the United States
In terms of Europe and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States generally showed an upward trend last Friday. The price fell to 1.1356 on the day and rose to 1.1397 on the spot and closed at 1.1389 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets last Friday, the morning opening price first received support and further rises in the short term. Then it was under pressure and then put a force on the four-hour support position. It finally closed at a high level. The daily and weekly lines ended with a big positive end, and the market continued to make progress.One step up performance.
From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0770, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.0790 area, and continue to look bullish from the perspective of the midline. From the daily level, the price is supported by the 1.1180 region, so the band is treated with the same bullish idea. From the short-term four-hour level, the current 1.1380-90 position is the key support position, and the price is relatively long in the short term in the four-hour period, so the current long cycles are currently in the bullish performance, and the operation continues to be more lagging on lows.
Europe and the United States have a range of 1.1410-20, with a defense of 40 points, and a target of 1.1500-1.1550-1.1600
[Finance data and events that are focused today] Monday, April 21, 2025
①To be determined for the 2025 World Bank and IMF spring meetings
②09:00 China to April 21, one-year loan market quotation rate
③15:00 State Information Office held a press conference
④20:30 Federal Reserve Goulsby was interviewed by the media
⑤22:00 US March Consulting Chamber of xmtraders.commerce Leading Index Monthly Rate
Note: The above is only personal opinion and strategy, for reference and xmtraders.communication only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and it is not used as a basis for placing an order.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Four-hour support becomes a springboard for gold soaring, and Europe and the United States break the upper edge of volatility". It is carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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