German economy is expected to stagnate in 2025. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 24

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures indexes all fell, Dow futures fell 0.75%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.89%. European stocks fell, with the Pan-European Stock 600 falling 0.5%. The German DAX index and the French CAC40 index also fell 0.7%. The FTSE 100 index in the UK remained flat.

2. Market news interpretation

Spain is seeking to import more liquefied natural gas from different manufacturers

Spain reportedly hopes that the EU will maintain its goal of reducing methane emissions in the energy industry, while Spain is seeking to import more liquefied natural gas from different manufacturers. Spain's deputy prime minister believes that the country should diversify its LNG import channels and should not rely entirely on the United States.

German government: Tariff shock may cause the German economy to stagnate this year

German government lowered its economic growth forecast on Thursday and is currently expected to stagnate in 2025, rather than 0.3% growth, as uncertainty in global trade disputes will hinder economic growth and curb investment. Germany is the only economy in the G7 that has not grown in the past two years, and Trump's tariff policy could leave Europe's largest economy without growth for the third consecutive year for the first time in history. Germany's export-oriented economy has fallen into a dilemma of weak global demand for its products and foreign xmtraders.companies undermining its xmtraders.competitiveness. By 2026, the German government expects economic growth by 1%, slightly below 1.1% forecast in January and is expected to see some growth under Prime Minister-elect Mertz. After a 1.1% decline in 2024, exports are expected to fall by 2.2% this year and will rise by 1.3%.

India has stepped up its response efforts to revoke all visas for Pakistani citizens

On the 24th local time, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that it will further increase its response efforts, revoke all visas issued to Pakistani citizens, and suspend visa services for Pakistani people. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the same day saying: From April 27, all existing valid visas issued to Pakistani nationals will be revoked; all medical visas issued to Pakistani citizens will be valid until April 29; all Pakistani currently in India must leave the country before the visa expires according to the revised schedule. Given this, most Pakistanis who receive Indian visas will have 72 hours to leave the country. Visa services for Pakistani nationals will also be suspended, meaning Pakistani citizens will not be able to obtain documents to travel to India.

The German economy is expected to stagnate in 2025 and is expected to resume growth in 2026

⑴ The German government on Thursday lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025, and the economy is expected to stagnate, rather than the previously expected 0.3% growth.

⑵ German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said uncertainty in global trade disputes will curb growth and hit investment.

⑶ Germany is the only G7 country that has failed to achieve growth in the past two years, and the tariffs announced by President Trump may put the German economy at risk of zero growth for the first time.

⑷ Germany's export-driven economy has been struggling with weak global demand and the erosion of its xmtraders.competitiveness by foreign xmtraders.companies.

⑸ Habek called on the EU and the United States to resolve trade issues and prepare necessary countermeasures for the EU.

⑹The German government expects economic growth by 1% in 2026, slightly below the January forecast of 1.1%, and expects a recovery under new Prime Minister Friedrich Mertz.

⑺Germany exports are expected to fall by 2.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.

⑻Earlier this month, the German Economic Research Institute lowered its growth forecast for this year to 0.1% from 0.8% in September, considering preliminary U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles.

⑼ Despite this, an IFO survey showed that Germany's business prosperity index rose unexpectedly in April, but xmtraders.companies remain pessimistic about the uncertainty of U.S. tariff escalation.

⑽The German government expects inflation to drop to 2% in 2025 and to 1.9% in 2026, down from 2.2% last year.

⑾The weak economy will have an impact on the job market, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 6.0% in 2024 to 6.3% in 2025 and then drop to 6.2% in 2026.

Eurozone bond collectionRates of yields fell, global market sentiment turned fragile

⑴ On April 24, eurozone treasury bond yields fell after rising on the previous trading day. As global market sentiment turned negative, investors turned to safe-haven assets again.

⑵ German 10-year treasury bond yield (eurozone benchmark) fell 2 basis points to 2.48%, after a 5.5 basis points rise on the day before, a 5.5 basis points rise on news that the United States is considering lowering import tariffs on China.

⑶In recent weeks, as the outlook for the U.S. Treasury market has become xmtraders.complicated, investors have increasingly turned to German Treasury bonds as safe-haven assets.

⑷ The IFO survey released on the same day showed that Germany's business prosperity index rose unexpectedly in April, although corporate uncertainty increased.

⑸ Franziska Palmas, senior European economist at Capital Economy Corporation, said that the improvement of the IFO index may be another sign that "tariff pre-position" will play a certain role in supporting economic activity in April, but the overall German economy is still very weak.

⑹Data released the day before showed that growth in business activities in the euro zone has stagnated this month.

⑺U.S. President Trump's tariff policy has intensified market volatility, and signs of easing trade tensions have given investors a sigh of relief.

⑻U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said high tariffs between the United States and China are unsustainable and the Trump administration is open to ease the trade dispute.

⑼ Italy's 10-year government bond yield fell 4 basis points to 3.59%, while Italy and Germany's 10-year government bond yield spread narrowed to 110 basis points.

⑽French 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 3 basis points to 3.21%, and France's consumer confidence data remained stable in April.

⑾The yield on Germany's 2-year government bonds fell 3 basis points to 1.70%, and the market expects the main interest rate of the ECB in December to be close to 1.6%.

The Japanese Treasury bond yield curve became steeper due to good 2-year auctions

⑴ On April 24, the Japanese Treasury bond yield curve became steeper after good 2-year auctions, and investors turned from ultra-long-term bonds to short-term and medium-term bonds.

⑵ Futures opened at the opening of 40 basis points to 140.08, and then fell further to 140.07, but soon stopped falling and rebounded.

The cash bond market was not traded before 9 points, and the 5-year yield rose 2.5 basis points to 0.925%, but then stabilized.

⑷ The yield curve initially continued to flatten due to a good auction on Tuesday afternoon, with the 20-year yield falling 1.5 basis points to 2.185% and the 30-year yield falling 2 basis points to 2.66%.

⑸ The 2-year auction result on the same day was good, with a yield of 0.694%, lower than the market expectations of 0.70%.

⑹Good auction results drive 10-year and below yields, while ultra-long-term bond yields rise.

⑺20-year yield rebounded at 2:30 pmAt 2.205%, the 30-year yield rebounded to 2.70%, but then the yield fell to 2.685% due to active trading of 30-year old bonds.

⑻The good performance of the 2-year auction also drove futures to rise, especially those shorted in the morning and expecting trade tensions to ease, and futures prices rose to a maximum of 140.72.

The UK manufacturing industry faces a weak export order impact

⑴ In April 2025, the UK CBI manufacturing order balance was -26, an improvement from -29 in March, but it is still in a contraction state.

⑵ During the same period, the balance of export orders for the UK CBI manufacturing industry fell to -41, the lowest level since September 2024, a sharp decline from -29 in March.

⑶The output of the UK CBI manufacturing industry is expected to be -2 in the next three months, a significant improvement from -18 in March.

⑷ The average price of the UK CBI manufacturing industry in the next three months is +23, a slight increase from +22 in March.

⑸ The UK CBI quarterly business status index was -33, an improvement from -47 in January.

⑹The UK manufacturing industry was hit by weak export orders in April, and global trade frictions were one of the key factors.

⑺CBI economists point out that manufacturers are facing pressure from rising costs, falling new order expectations and increasing global economic uncertainty.

⑻ Surveys show that manufacturers cut jobs and investments due to financial pressure, market instability and declining confidence, including spending on construction, equipment, innovation and training.

The bond market in core European countries is rising attraction

⑴On April 24, Nadege Dufosse, global head of asset allocation at Candriam, said that the government bond market in core European countries is attractive despite short-term volatility. ⑵This view is based on expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates further. ⑶ The long positions of German government bonds remain at the core of Candriam's asset allocation, as inflation falls and the European Central Bank is expected to further relax monetary policy. ⑷ Candriam is cautious about U.S. Treasury bonds amid concerns over economic growth exceed expectations for interest rate cuts.

German business confidence rose unexpectedly, and concerns about recession eased

⑴ On April 24, Germany's business confidence rose unexpectedly in April, and the IFO business prosperity index rose from 86.7 in March to 86.9, exceeding the 85.2 expectations of analysts surveyed by Reuters.

⑵IFO expectation index fell to 87.4, but the decline was less than the expected 85.0.

⑶The current status index rose from 85.7 to 86.4.

⑷ The head of the IFO Economic Research Institute said that the German economy is resisting recession.

⑸ Despite the tariff conflict with the United States, German construction industry business expectations have improved significantly, and the service industry's future expectations have stabilized, which almost offsets the industrial, wholesale and retail industries.The decline.

⑹The future coalition government of Germany has agreed in March to significantly increase borrowing to stimulate the economy, but economists believe this will not take effect quickly this year.

⑺LBBW analysts said that although the findings are not worth celebrating, it shows that the German economy will not fall into a serious recession in the near term.

⑻The tariffs announced by US President Trump have triggered global uncertainty. Germany, as the largest trading partner of the United States, will be the country that Europe has suffered the most in the trade war.

⑼ The German government is expected to lower its economic forecast for 2025 on Thursday, with Europe's largest economy likely to stagnate this year.

⑽ Germany is the only G7 economy that has not achieved growth in the past two years, and if the forecast is established, it will be the first time in Germany's history that there has been no growth for three consecutive years.

OPEC+ internal discrepancies intensify, and oil prices face downward risks

⑴On April 24, ING experts pointed out that due to internal discord between OPEC+, oil prices failed to follow the rise of other risky assets, and the settlement price of ICE Brent crude oil fell by nearly 2% on the same day. ⑵ Kazakhstan said it could not reduce oil production and planned to prioritize domestic interests rather than fulfilling OPEC+ obligations. ⑶OPEC+ members are pushing for a significant increase in production in June, after the organization had unexpectedly increased production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, exceeding the original plan of 138,000 barrels per day. ⑷ Demand estimates have been slashed as trade tensions continue, and further differences within OPEC+ could lead to price wars. ⑸ However, the price difference of ICE Brent crude oil has remained supportive recently, and is in a reverse price difference of nearly US$1 per barrel, indicating that the spot market supply is tight. ⑹ Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil inventories rose by 244,000 barrels last week, contrary to the 4.75 million barrels decline reported by the U.S. Petroleum Association the day before. ⑺The inventory of refined oil was relatively positive, with gasoline and distillate oil decreased by 4.48 million barrels and 2.35 million barrels respectively, and gasoline demand increased by 952,000 barrels per day on the weekly basis. ⑻ Gasoline inventory has fallen for eight consecutive weeks, falling to its lowest level since December last year, driving the RBOB crack spread to rise.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1369, an increase of 0.48%. Before New York, the euro rose against the dollar on the last trading day, trying to unload some oversold conditions on the (RSI), especially as the positive signal appears, touching its EMA50 resistance, affected by the negative bullish wedge pattern.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3302, an increase of 0.37%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, GBPUSD rose on the last trading day, and the price tried to form an upward low, which may form a technical support base.and help it regain the positive momentum needed to xmtraders.complete the bull market track.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3338.42, an increase of 1.54%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold rose slightly in recent trading, supported by trading above the EMA50, and positive signals appeared on the RSI, all of which were dominated by major short-term bullish trends.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 33.483, a drop of 0.23%. Before New York, silver prices continued to collect the gains from their last rise and tried to unload some apparent overbought conditions on (RSI) to collect positive forces that could help them recover and rise again, bullish correction trends dominate on a short-term basis and trade along the trend line.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 63.020, an increase of 1.20%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices relied on EMA50 to obtain some support, with the key support at the stability of $61.50, trying to make up for some losses yesterday, affected by the short-term negative technical pattern (upper wedge pattern).

4. Institutional view

Nomura changed its words: The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut interest rates twice and restart negative interest rates.

Nomura Securities predicts in its latest report that the Swiss National Bank will cut interest rates twice this year, each with a rate cut of 25 basis points. This is contrary to their previous view that there will be no further cuts after the rate cut in March. The bank expects the Swiss National Bank to take action to try to curb the strength of the Swiss franc. As of the current situation, the actual effective exchange rate of the Swiss franc is already at its highest level since 2008, and the further rate cuts of the ECB and the ongoing economic uncertainty caused by US tariff policies will only further promote the Swiss franc to strengthen unless the Swiss central bank can at least take some measures to intervene. Therefore, they believe that the Swiss National Bank will take decisive action to cut interest rates at its meetings in June and September. This will re-open the attempt to negative interest rates. If this is true, then Switzerland's adjustment of monetary policy (resuming normalization) after the COVID-19 pandemic will end.

Dutch International: The US dollar is still downward in the short term

Dutch International Group foreign exchange strategist Francesco Pesole said that so far, there is obviously noOther currencies are as sensitive to trade news as the dollar. We still believe that the US dollar will still be downward in the short term, but we do not expect the unilateral selling of the US dollar that we have seen recently. That being said, the EUR/USD is still almost entirely affected by the US dollar trend. If concerns about Fed independence are once again in the spotlight, the euro/dollar may still break through $1.15 again.

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