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market news
Tokyo inflation rose to 3.4%, Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations strengthen
Wonderful Introduction:
Life is full of dangers and traps, but I will never be afraid anymore. I will always remember. Be a strong person. Let "strong" set sail for me and always accompany me to the other side of life.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Tokyo's inflation rate rises to 3.4%, and the Bank of Japan's expectations of interest rate hikes have increased." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM foreign exchange market: Tokyo's inflation rate rose to 3.4%, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations have increased
XM foreign exchange market: According to the latest data released by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Affairs of Japan, Japan's core CPI annual rate rose sharply from 2.4% to 3.4% in April, higher than the expected value of 3.2%. In most cases, the increase in inflation rate is carried out at a range of 0.2 to 0.3, with an increase of 1.0 in April, which is about five times the usual increase, which shows the strong growth in domestic demand in Tokyo, Japan. Although Tokyo's price data only represents one city, since Tokyo is the city with the highest GDP contribution in Japan, accounting for about one-sixth of the national GDP, its inflation rate changes are highly representative.
▲XM chart
The above picture is an overlay of the annual rate of the Japanese core CPI and the annual rate of the Tokyo core CPI. In the long term, the trends of the two resonate significantly, and one can know the changes in one data in advance, and the other data can also be predicted relatively accurately. Tokyo took the lead in the April inflation data, which can be used as a forward-looking indicator of the trend of Japan's national inflation. If nothing unexpected happens, Japan's core CPI annual rate will also rise significantly in April. Considering that Japan's core inflation rate was 3.2% in March, the April data is expected to rise above 3.5%. For the Bank of Japan, preventing the counterattack of high inflation is the top priority. If Japan's core inflation does rise as expected in April, market participants will be more confident that the Bank of Japan will continue its interest rate hike policy.
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Bank of Japan's policy interest rates resonate with the 10-year Treasury yield. In March 2024, since the Bank of Japan's first interest rate hike, the bond and policy interest rate curves have risen simultaneously. As of now, the rise is still continuing, which means that the Bank of Japan may further increase interest rates. As US President Trump proposed radical policies in early April, market participants once worried that the Japanese economy would be hit and fell into recession. However, judging from the latest inflation rate data, this concern has not been fulfilled, and Japan's macroeconomics still perform well. Behind the yen is the Japanese bond yield. As the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike continues, the Japanese bond yield continues to rise, and the yen will also maintain the current appreciation trend.
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On the daily line level, USDJPY is in a clear unilateral trend, and it is suitable to use the moving average system to analyze operations. The recent adjustment trend occurred from February 20 to April 3, and the retracement on April 9 confirmed the end of the adjustment trend. As of now, the three moving averages of MA5MA10MA20 are short-sold, and the appreciation status of the yen is expected to continue. Starting from April 22, USDJPY showed signs of continuous rebound, and today's K-line highest price crossed the MA10 moving average. If the rebound band continues in the future and the closing price of the K-line is above MA20, you need to be wary of the possibility of a trend reversal.
XM Risk Warning, Disclaimer, Special Statement: Market There are risks, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of the analyst and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the only reference basis. In different periods, analysts' views may change, and the update will not be notified separately.
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