The British inflation alarm has not been removed, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 20

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.56%, the S&P 500 futures rising 1.17%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 1.60%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.74%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.46%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.65%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.81%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The British inflation warning has not been lifted, and Bank of America warned that the market is too early to be optimistic

⑴ Bank of America strategists pointed out that market optimism about a fall in British inflation may be premature. ⑵Although overall inflation slowed down for the first time in seven months in October, the risk of stubborn inflation has not yet been xmtraders.completely eliminated. ⑶ The strategist made it clear that he "does not believe that inflation stubbornness has ended," suggesting that market judgment may be too hasty. ⑷ Potentially worrying tail risks still exist, including policy shifts that may be triggered by political uncertainty. ⑸The current government has been weakened by repeated policy changes and intra-party conflicts, and regime change may lead to a shift in fiscal policy to loosening. ⑹ Finance Minister Reeves will announce the budget next Wednesday, which is expected to still put pressure on households and businesses. ⑺Although certain adjustments have been made in income tax, the overall fiscal stance is still biased towards tightening. ⑻Investors need to pay attention to the specific details of next week's budget and its potential impact on inflation trends.

Israel announced the expropriation of land in the West Bank to develop archaeological sites

On the 20th local time, the Coordination Office of Government Territory Activities (COGAT) under the Israeli Ministry of Defense announced on the same day that it had launched an investigation into PalestineThe expropriation process for 1,800 dunams (approximately 1.8 square kilometers) of land in the West Bank is planned to protect and develop the archaeological site of Sebastia near Nablus. The Government's Territorial Activities Coordination Office stated that the land acquisition scope is located in Area C of the Palestinian West Bank. This area is under Israeli security and civil control. The relevant land owners have been officially notified. The land around Sebastian will be transferred to the Israeli cultural heritage department for management. A total investment of approximately NIS 32 million (approximately 65 million yuan) will be used to upgrade the site, improve tourist access conditions, and develop archaeological areas.

Canadian xmtraders.companies are stuck in AI investment dilemma, with 93% of applications seeing only 2% returns

⑴ KPMG research shows that 93% of Canadian xmtraders.companies are using artificial intelligence, a significant increase from 61% last year. ⑵ The vast majority of xmtraders.companies are still in the partial application or experimental stage, and only 31% have fully integrated generative AI into their core business. ⑶ Currently, only 2% of xmtraders.companies report obtaining actual returns from their AI investments, and the results are significantly lower than expected. ⑷ Nearly one-third of the xmtraders.companies that claimed to have received returns were unable to describe their return on investment in detail. ⑸Most xmtraders.companies expect it to take 1-5 years to see substantial benefits from AI investments. ⑹Experts warn that Canada is facing pressing productivity and xmtraders.competitiveness challenges, and there are risks in waiting several years to capture the value of AI. ⑺Companies generally have a trial attitude towards AI technology, but the transformation path from experimentation to output is not yet clear. ⑻This current situation reflects that the maturity of AI technology in actual xmtraders.commercial applications still needs to be improved.

U.S. consumers are increasingly relying on credit cards, and there are hidden concerns about holiday consumption due to high inflation

⑴ A survey by National Credit Information xmtraders.company shows that 42% of U.S. consumers plan to use credit cards to make purchases during Thanksgiving, a significant increase from 38% in the same period last year. ⑵ This survey of 3,000 people found that consumers’ reliance on credit cards is continuing to deepen. ⑶Although about 55% of consumers remain optimistic about their family's financial situation in the next year, this proportion has declined from 58% last year. ⑷Inflation remains the financial issue that consumers are most worried about, with 86% of respondents expressing concern about it. ⑸Potential economic recession and high housing prices are also listed as key risk factors for consumers. ⑹ High-income groups use credit cards mainly for payment convenience and reward acquisition. ⑺ Low-income groups are more forced to rely on credit cards to maintain consumption levels due to the pressure of inflation and high housing prices. ⑻ Industry experts point out that the current low unemployment rate environment has helped control credit card and loan delinquencies. ⑼The motivations for using credit cards among different income groups show obvious differentiation, reflecting the structural changes in the U.S. consumer market. ⑽ As the holiday shopping season approaches, rising consumer debt levels deserve close attention.

UK industrial orders continued to be weak in November and demand was suppressed before the budget

⑴ The latest survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed that the total order balance in November rose slightly to minus 37 from minus 38 in October, which is still far below market expectationsof minus 30 and the long-term average of minus 14. ⑵ Order levels remain basically stable at historically low levels, reflecting customers delaying purchases and investments ahead of the annual budget announcement on November 26. ⑶ Although export orders have improved slightly from October, they are still below "normal" levels. ⑷The decline in output accelerated in the three months to November, the largest decline since August 2020. ⑸Output is expected to continue to shrink at a similar rate in the three months to February next year. ⑹ Sales price inflation is expected to slow down to the long-term average in November.

The U.S. bond market welcomes key data, and the Fed’s disagreements hide mysteries

⑴ The U.S. bond market showed a bearish trend, with the 10-year yield hitting a new high of 4.15%, and traders waited for guidance from employment data. ⑵ The postponed September non-agricultural report will become the focus today. The market expects an increase of 50,000 people, but the risk-return bias is weaker than expected. ⑶ There are serious divisions within the Fed. Minutes of the meeting showed that "most" officials opposed an interest rate cut in December, and "several" officials supported easing. ⑷The core of the differences in monetary policy lies in the judgment of the labor market. One side is worried that weak demand will trigger layoffs, while the other side is worried about the stickiness of inflation. ⑸ Today’s data is intensively released, including the September employment report, weekly initial filings, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and many other indicators. ⑹ Many Federal Reserve officials will speak out one after another, ranging from the hawkish Hammack to the dovish Goolsby, with a xmtraders.complete spectrum of positions. ⑺The Ministry of Finance will conduct an additional issuance of US$19 billion of 10-year TIPS, and at the same time launch a long-term bond repurchase operation to test the market's ability to undertake. ⑻With the probability of an interest rate cut in December being only 30%, weak data may reignite easing expectations and bring trading opportunities in the bond market.

The Eurozone’s construction industry output fell 0.3% year-on-year in September, the largest decline in half a year

⑴ The Eurozone’s construction industry output fell 0.3% year-on-year in September, reversing the upwardly revised 1.0% increase in August, marking the largest decline since March. ⑵ Construction activity plummeted by 4.1% (previous value -1.5%) was the main drag factor. ⑶Civil engineering increased by 2.0%, slower than the 3.3% growth in August; professional construction activities increased by 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.9%. ⑷Among the major economies, Germany's output fell by 2.2% (previous value -1.9%), France fell by 1.9% (previous value -1.3%), and Spain fell by 4.8% (previous value +7.2%). ⑸ Italy achieved a growth of 4.4% (previous value 3.5%). ⑹ The output of the construction industry fell by 0.5% month-on-month, shrinking for the second consecutive month.

The difference in CBI industrial orders in the UK in November was negative 37, which was lower than expected

⑴The difference in CBI industrial orders in the UK in November was negative 37, which was lower than the negative 33 expected by the market. ⑵The previous value was negative 38. ⑶The survey tracks changes in order levels of approximately 500 xmtraders.companies covering 38 manufacturing sectors. ⑷The scope of the investigation includes domestic and export orders, inventories, prices, investment intentions and output expectations. ⑸In recent years, the index has continued to fluctuate between minus 18 and minus 36.

The German economy is showing signs of recovery, and industrial stabilization will boost growth in the fourth quarter

⑴The Bundesbank expects the economy to grow slightly in the fourth quarter, ending recent stagnation. ⑵ The continued expansion of the service industry has become the main driving force, while the weak industrial sector is gradually stabilizing. ⑶German economic growth stagnated last quarter, and the economy has been basically at zero growth for most of the past three years. ⑷The deep recession in the industrial sector and the increase in household savings have jointly restricted the previous economic performance. ⑸ Analysts believe that economic growth is expected to accelerate next year as the government increases defense and infrastructure spending. ⑹ The Bundesbank pointed out that the industrial sector has lost part of its xmtraders.competitiveness due to high costs and is unable to fully benefit from the global recovery. ⑺In terms of the external environment, Trump’s tariff remarks may have a certain drag on demand. ⑻Although the construction industry remains stable, the effects of fiscal stimulus are not expected to be fully felt in the economy until next year. ⑼The current positive growth momentum mainly xmtraders.comes from the service industry, but there is limited improvement in areas directly related to consumption. ⑽ This outlook shows that the German economy is looking for bottom support, but a full recovery will still take time.

French inflation bond subscriptions are booming, with particularly strong demand for the ultra-long term

⑴ France successfully issued three inflation-linked government bonds on Thursday, with a total financing scale of 1 billion euros, covering multiple maturities from 2036 to 2053. ⑵ 544 million euros of bonds due in 2036 were issued, with an average yield of 1.57% and a bid coverage ratio of 3.118 times. ⑶The issuance of 281 million euros of bonds due in 2040 has an average yield of 1.78%, and the bid coverage ratio is as high as 3.509 times. ⑷The issuance of ultra-long-term bonds due in 2053 amounted to 175 million euros, with an average yield of 2.06%, and was oversubscribed 3.834 times. ⑸The bid coverage ratios of the three bonds all exceeded 3 times, indicating that the market demand for French inflation-linked bonds continues to be strong. ⑹ Ultra-long-term bond subscriptions are the most popular, reflecting investors’ strong demand for allocation of long-term inflation protection tools. ⑺The yield curve shows a steepening characteristic, rising from 1.57% in 2036 to 2.06% in 2053, and the term premium is reasonable. ⑻The successful auction results show that despite market fluctuations, investors still maintain confidence in the inflation prospects of core euro zone countries.

Japan’s largest nuclear power plant is expected to be approved to restart this week

It was learned on the 20th local time that Hideyo Hanakaku, the governor of Japan’s Niigata Prefecture, is expected to express his intention to restart Japan’s largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant, on the 21st. But only one of the plant's seven reactors will resume operations. Since the serious nuclear leakage accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, the Japanese government ordered the closure of all nuclear power plants in the country. So far, 14 nuclear power units have resumed operation, mainly located in western and southern Japan. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant is located in Niigata Prefecture in northwestern Japan. It is named because it spans Kashiwazaki and Kariwa. It is one of the nuclear power plants with the largest net power generation in the world. After the earthquake on March 11, 2011, Tokyo Electric Power xmtraders.company scrapped two Fukushima nuclear power plants, and the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant has also been closed since March 2012.

European Central Bank member Makhlouf: We need to see substantial changes in the outlook before we support interest rate cuts

⑴ European Central Bank member Makhlouf said he is satisfied with the current policy stance and will need to see sufficient evidence before he changes his view. ⑵ Current economic results are in line with expectations, and new forecasts are unlikely to see major changes. ⑶ Decision-makers should be very cautious about small deviations in forecast data. ⑷The risks to the inflation outlook are generally balanced. ⑸ Maintain a xmtraders.completely relaxed attitude towards the possibility that inflation will be temporarily low next year, and are convinced that inflation will pick up. ⑹ Makhlouf emphasized that he would need to see substantial changes in the outlook before he would support an interest rate cut.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1514, a decrease of 0.21%. Prices for EURUSD rose during the latest intraday session in New York pre-market in an attempt to recoup some of its previous losses in an attempt to eliminate its apparent oversold condition, especially amid a positive signal on the Relative Strength Index, while trading along a slightly bearish trend line in the short term.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3061, an increase of 0.02%. Before the New York session, (GBPUSD) price continued to fall on the last trading day, affected by a negative technical pattern (falling wedge pattern) that formed on a short-term basis, which formed during the bull market corrective wave to end any chance of a sustainable recovery in the near term, especially due to the persistence of negative pressure as it traded below the EMA50, despite reaching oversold levels.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4087.64, an increase of 0.24%. The (gold) price fluctuated during the last intraday session in New York, xmtraders.completing its attempts to gain bullish momentum, which may help it surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50. The main bullish trend is dominant and is trading along the secondary trend lines supporting recovery on a short-term basis. Furthermore, there is a positive overlapping signal on the relative strength indicator after reaching oversold levels xmtraders.compared to the price action.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now trading at 51.019, a decrease of 0.62%. Before the New York market opened, (silver) prices fell on the last trading day. After reaching overbought levels, the relative strength indicator showed negative signals and exceeded its EMA50 support. This put it under negative pressure and hindered recovery attempts in the xmtraders.coming period., the primary bullish trend dominates, and its trades are accompanied by supportive secondary trendlines of that trend.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 59.770, an increase of 0.88%. Before the New York market opening, (crude oil) prices rose on the last trading day, supported by positive signals from the relative strength indicator. After reaching oversold levels, it hit the resistance of its EMA50, affected by a short-term negative technical pattern (rising wedge pattern), reducing the chances of a short-term recovery.

4. Institutional perspective

Deutsche Bank: Nvidia has raised its expectations for future fiscal years due to outstanding performance

⑴ Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymour pointed out that Nvidia has performed well and the performance gap with its peers may further widen. ⑵ The chipmaker's third-quarter performance exceeded average expectations and continued to maintain its leading position in the fields of artificial intelligence xmtraders.computing, networking, software and systems. ⑶ Management expressed strong confidence in the future growth of the data center business, mentioning that cumulative revenue from the beginning of 2025 to the end of 2026 will be approximately US$500 billion. ⑷ Deutsche Bank raised Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share forecast for fiscal year 2026-2027 by a double-digit percentage.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The British inflation warning has not been removed, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on November 20". It is carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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