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Japan's core CPI annual rate in March was 3.2%, and the central bank's reasons for hikes are more sufficient

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Japan's core CPI annual rate in March is 3.2%, and the central bank's reasons for hikes in interest rates are more sufficient." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM foreign exchange market: Japan's core CPI annual rate in March was 3.2%, and the central bank's reasons for hikes in interest rates were more sufficient.

XM foreign exchange market: According to data from the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Affairs of Japan, Japan's core CPI annual rate in March was 3.2%, higher than the previous value of 3%, and the same as the expected value. This is the fourth month of the annual rate of Japan's core CPI, which has remained above 3%. Japan's core CPI annual rate last negative in July 2021, and inflation data entered an upward channel. Since April 2022, Japan's core inflation rate has been higher than the moderate inflation standard of 2%. In three years, it has proved that Japan's domestic demand is no longer weak, and inflation is healthy and stable.

▲XM chart

Inflation rate is healthy, and the Bank of Japan is conducive to further raising policy interest rates. However, judging from the superposition of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the Bank of Japan's policy interest rate, the two have seen a significant divergence since April. Bond yields are guided by the Bank of Japan's decision-making. When the yield drops sharply, the Bank of Japan is likely to choose to cut interest rates to smooth out the gap between the two. On the one hand, it is the expectation of interest rate hikes caused by inflation, and on the other hand, it is the expectation of interest rate cuts caused by bond yields. What decision will be made by the Bank of Japan depends on how much U.S. policies can affect Japan's macroeconomics.

▲XM chart

U.S. policies mainly affect Japan's exportsindustry. In March this year, Japan's total export value was 9.85 trillion yen, an increase from the previous value of 9.19 trillion yen, and its absolute value was at a relatively high level in recent years. However, from the perspective of export structure, about 21% of Japan's goods flow to the United States. If there are problems with exports to the United States, Japan's export industry will suffer a significant impact. Although Japan is included in the 90-day grace period, this is just delaying the risk and not eliminating it. Assuming that Japan's export industry is indeed subject to a significant impact from US policies, the Bank of Japan will likely restart interest rate cuts or maintain a longer low interest rate policy, which will be negative for the yen.

▲XM chart

On the daily line level, the yen is in a medium-term appreciation trend, mainly because the current market participants have strong expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes. The current latest quote for USDJPY is 142.30, and the highest price last year reached 161.94 points. In the past 20 years, the lowest quotation for USDJPY is 75.56. If xmtraders.compared with the highest price, the value of the yen has been reduced by more than half xmtraders.compared to the US dollar. For Japan's export industry, the depreciation of the yen is good news. However, Abenomics has withdrawn from the stage of history and the Bank of Japan has entered a new state of continuous interest rate hikes. The long-term depreciation trend of the yen may no longer apply, and the current appreciation trend may remain longer.

▲XM diagram

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Japan's core CPI annual rate in March is 3.2%, and the central bank's reasons for hike interest rates are more sufficient." It is carefully xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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Japan's core CPI annual rate in March was 3.2%, and the central bank's reasons for hikes are more sufficient

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

market analysis

Japan's core CPI annual rate in March was 3.2%, and the central bank's reasons for hikes are more sufficient

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason